Viewpoint: Old Thinking, New Realities

Conspiracy hatchers and theorists have always abounded in the murky politics of this country: politicians conspiring with the establishment for the overthrow of their rivals, with foreign powers to keep their favourite military dictator at the helm, or the judiciary conspiring with the Army to lend legitimacy to military rule – we have seen it all.

But as the democratic process moved on during the last five years, we thought the time of conspiracies was over. Opposition politicians having learnt a lesson or two from the past experience wouldn’t give a nod and a wink to the men in uniform to come marching in. The apex court had given a landmark judgement that buried the ‘Doctrine of Necessity’ the superior judiciary used in the past to legitimise military rule. It has been consistently iterating its resolve not to allow anyone to harm the democratic process. And, of course, we have a watchful independent media and a strong civil society to resist any extra-constitutional intervention. All this has been very reassuring, except for the fact that those who think ‘bloody civilians’ are unfit to run the affairs of this country seem not to have changed their thinking.

They still think only they can fix all problems. But new ground realities do not permit direct intervention. If the ground realities have changed so should the strategy. Instead of direct intervention indirect control should do. The situation called for new tactics such as installing a caretaker set-up headed by a trusted technocrat who could be asked to use bad law and order situation to postpone the elections for two, three years, and set things right. Hence came trotting out an old horse, Tahirul Qadri, from his adopted home in Canada, backed by a multi-million rupee campaign, to throw a spanner in the works just as all political players were getting ready for fresh elections. As per the game plan Qadri created a ruckus agitating for ‘electoral reform’. He kept making and dropping demands, but remained insistent on one – in disregard of the relevant constitutional provision – which was to include the Army in selecting the new caretaker set-up. While he ranted and raved, the Zardari government appeared to be playing along, providing food and comfort to Qadri’s spiritual followers staging a sit-in before the Parliament to press for ‘reform’, and finally signing an agreement to accept some of his inconsequential demands.

That though did not, could not, help because the Opposition had its own constitutional role to play in the context. The PML-N, so much the wiser from its 90s experience, wouldn’t allow the Army or its proxies to pick caretakers. Qadri was beaten back. Still, a second attempt was worth a try as long as the PPP leadership was willing to lend a helping hand. Which explains why two of the three names the PPP proposed for the position happened to be two pro-establishment economists, Hafeez Sheikh and his milder version Dr Ishrat Husain. There is no need for an economist to head the caretaker set-up for just two months, especially in view of the PML-N’s public warning against any pre-election agreement with the IMF.

What is in it for the PPP? Apparently, the party leadership has come to the realisation that it has as much a chance of returning to power at the upcoming polls as the chance of a snowball surviving in hell. Its top leaders face serious corruption charges, some of which are already pending with the apex court. In the event, the Nawaz League wins the election, it will happily offer the court necessary assistance to uncover evidence of wrongdoing and punish those involved. It may not act over-enthusiastically, though. But what if the PTI gets the mandate to form the next government? Imran Khan’s declared plan is to end corruption in high places within the first 90 days in power. That could bring a lot of trouble for the PPP’s several frontline leaders, including its ex and current prime ministers. If, on the other hand, a pro-establishment technocrat manages to stretch caretakers government for two, three years, the party can hope that, as a return favour, the corruption cases would be overlooked. Also, if elections are delayed for two, three years it could expect the people to forget the pain inflicted on them by runaway inflation, energy crisis which has rendered millions jobless, and relentless violence; and vote for it.

At the back of the government and the Opposition’s failure to agree on a caretaker prime minister is not only the Nawaz League’s fear of partiality but postponement of elections. The fear is so strong that the party does not trust even an ally, JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman with whom Nawaz Sharif recently announced having reached an agreement to work towards forming an electoral alliance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Notably, the Maulana had expressed annoyance over the PML-N decision to withdraw one of its original nominees without consulting him. Yet again he has been ignored. After the government and the Opposition’s failure to arrive at a consensus the four members the Nawaz League has nominated to participate in an eight-member parliamentary committee meeting for deciding the issue, are all Nawaz Leaguers whereas two of the government nominees are from its coalition partners, the Q League and the ANP. Maulana Fazlur Rehman has been deliberately kept out, it seems, in view of his pro-establishment track record (remember, among other things, he played a significant role in the passage of “The President to Hold Another Office Act, 2004” to give a legal cover to General Pervez Musharraf’s wish to remain both President and the Chief of the Army Staff) and until recently, close association with the PPP.

Hopefully, the committee members will be able to find a consensus candidate within the three-day time limit available to them. They might agree on a new name. The PPP has already introduced the name of Abdul Hayee Baloch, who is from a centre-left Baloch nationalist party, and hence has more than one reason to qualify for the job. Mehmood Khan Achakzai, another non-controversial choice – informally considered earlier by both the PPP and the Nawaz League – from the restive Balochistan province might also emerge as a key contender. One thing is sure that whosoever is selected either by the parliamentary committee or, in case of its failure, the Election Commission would not be a pro-establishment figure. Try as they may, it seems the era of conspiracy politics is over.

saida_fazal@yahoo.com