Uncertain times

Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan had once remarked that Pakhtun women were more intelligent than their husbands. He had of course meant no offence to the men but only expected them to be generous in conceding cerebral superiority to their ladies. Badam Zari’s intention to contest elections from Bajaur Agency is, therefore, commendable but whether or not her dream of fighting for issues faced by women in rural Pakistan and in a milieu of growing uncertainty will ever get materialised, is quite another matter.

The reason for this state of affairs has long been known as the divide between those who advocate a strong response to the threat of terrorism without their own feathers getting singed in the process, and those who are soft on this monstrous phenomenon for their narrow agenda of possible electoral gains. The latter category conveniently blames the genesis of violence on the presence of US forces in Afghanistan and takes the simplistic view that once the source of ailment is eliminated, the disease will get cured.

The previous regime had ample time to put an effective counterterrorism strategy in place through national consensus, but it was never serious in the pursuit of that objective. With this opportunity wasted, the law and order problem has deteriorated to such an extent that it is now well nigh impossible for the security apparatus to measure up to the challenge with any degree of success, as set-piece defence measures can no longer contain random attacks.

The caretaker government was not expected to lead the charge, but neither was it anticipated that it would be so weak and ineffective as to let negative forces take advantage and gain ground so easily. This seems to have happened literally within days, as some political parties have been put on the defensive through barbaric attacks on their rallies and their candidates individually targeted. The brave rhetoric notwithstanding, the fact is that political parties are clueless on how to respond to this challenge.

The manifestos presented are uninspiring and political parties have spent more energy on seat adjustments and election-related alliances than on outlining how they intend to resolve the myriad problems faced by the people. This pattern is unlikely to change in the remaining weeks till elections, thus adding to an apprehension that this election too will be a mere change of faces and not much else.

The reported arrival of over a hundred suicide bombers from Afghanistan to join the TTP and cause havoc during elections has also caused more anxiety. If it turns out to be true and they target electioneering activity, it can become a hurdle in the smooth political transition that everyone is aspiring for.

Pakistan’s badlands in the north were always a sanctuary for fugitives from the law (mafroors in local parlance), mostly murderers from adjoining settled areas, but their refuge in far away rugged territory for years allowed flames of revenge to cool down sufficiently to be later watered down with blood money and bring closures to intra-tribal feuds.

Occasionally, a mafroor would come back to his village with an unlettered bride of stunning beauty to add colour and songs of love from far away mountains, but that is not so any longer.

All that has changed as nowadays spiralling violence emanating largely from Fata defines the lives of Pakistanis, in which both the targeted and the bystander can be caught in the next attack which could come from a suicide bomber, a roadside improvised explosive device, a remotely detonated explosive bomb or anything else. Fear seems to have captured space in the heart of the people, which always is the end objective in an asymmetrical warfare.

Another less discussed twist in the public debate – but of no less significance in the post-election scenario – is Imran Khan’s inflexible stance of not entering into any coalition with any of the other two major parties if his party fails to sweep the polls, which, depending on the final numbers, has all the potential to cause a ‘gridlock’ in government formation.

Even if a government is formed through one combination or the other, it is expected to be weak on legislation to tackle serious economic and security problems facing the country, exacerbated further by the PPP’s majority in the Senate.

It seems Imran Khan is aware of this possibility and hence his inflexible stance could be aimed at an early election in about two years time. This might be fair in politics but do we have the money for yet another election and, more importantly, can we realistically expect any different results without a fresh census and delineation of constituencies throughout the country based on new demographic realities?

Economic experts are of the view that because of the state of the economy, an agreement with the IMF is now a forgone conclusion. This will almost certainly be conditioned upon horizontal expansion of the tax base, something a weak government will find difficult to achieve both for its political cost and the fact that under a messed up PPP rule, people are unable to absorb any further levies. Our present taxation culture and a narrow base of just over a quarter million taxpayers in a population of over 180 million, badly needs re-structuring.

For perhaps the first time, the youth factor will impact this election because of their huge numbers in the voter’s lists. Both the PTI and the PML-N are well aware of this and have adopted different strategies to lure them into their camps. There is, however, a strong possibility of a divide between the faction which feels that the salvation of Pakistan lies in progressive thinking and the other burgeoning faction which is dismayed with dysfunctional democracy and prefers the imposition of Shariah laws.

As far as former president Pervez Musharraf’s impact on the country’s politics is concerned, the perception in the rank and file of the military will play a very crucial role. Up until his appearances in the courts for bail, there was little sympathy for him as he was considered solely responsible for his past actions and the decision to return from self-exile.

In the last few days, that indifference has mutated into pity and can quickly transform into sympathy and support, if his trial under Article 6 is perceived as less out of love for upholding the constitution and more of an effort to discredit the entire force and for vengeance.

Subservience of the military to civil authority is indeed desirable but can best be achieved through cleaner governance. Caution is, therefore, advised. If there is any first rate intelligence in the corridors of power to take the country out of this quagmire, the time to proactively display it is now.

Tailpiece: The octogenarian caretaker prime minister – whom we found after such an intense search and thought he was without a blemish – favoured his son at the first available opportunity. Why then, one wonders, was there so much fuss about ‘sadiq and ameen’ recently during the scrutiny of election candidates?

Regardless of their considerable disappointment with the conduct of their rulers, Pakistanis are never short on humour and here is what is currently doing the rounds. An old man in a village would take out the thirty odd cartridges from his ammunition pouch every morning and count them again and again. One day someone asked him why he did that – didn’t he already know they were thirty? Yes, yes I know, replied the old man, but I am angry that they are not as many as there are vagabonds around to shoot at.

The writer is a retired vice admiral. Email: tajkhattak@ymail.com