Trapped?

It must have been a moment of distress for General (r) Pervez Musharraf, when a shoe was hurled at him in the premises of the Sindh High Court. Never before has a former president of Pakistan – also a former army chief in this case –, been subjected to such a display of anger in public.

This is reportedly the second time that a shoe was thrown at Gen Musharraf: the first incident occurred in February 2011 during a London gathering. President Zardari, too, faced a twin shoe assault in a PPP rally in Birmingham in August 2010.

Gen Musharraf was provided with full security cover befitting a former president right after landing in Karachi, though he relies on his loyal ex-Special Services Group commandos of the army for his personal security. He must counter serious threats from the Tehreek-e-Taliban, Baloch militant groups as well as the Ghazi force comprising armed diehard followers of Maulana Abdul Rashid Ghazi, who died during the July 2007 Lal Masjid operation.

Although former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto also faced life threats from the Taliban, her official security arrangements seemed incommensurate with the special nature of the threats. She narrowly survived the October 18 Karsaz tragedy though the conspirators/assassins finally got her in Rawalpindi on December 27, 2007.

Is Musharraf’s return the result of any deal/understanding sponsored by international forces that are traditional stakeholders in Pakistan’s internal politics? He may deny any secret Saudi-led initiative for peace with Nawaz Sharif, his October 12, 1999 arch-rival. But the visible de-escalation of tensions between Mian Sahib and Musharraf after their recent meetings with top Saudi leadership lends credence to reports of positive intervention by the Saudi elite with full backing of the US/UK.

Instead of his usual anti-Musharraf rhetoric, the PML-N leader acknowledged that Musharraf being a Pakistani citizen had a right to live in the country and that it was against Quranic teachings to deprive a person of his homeland. Nawaz Sharif even publicly talked about ending forced exiles, military coups and hangings.

While there was an air of positivity and optimism in Mian Sahib’s ‘forced’ reconciliation, will this be sustained in case he returns to power after next elections? If Nawaz Sharif could join hands with Asif Zardari to oust Musharraf from the presidency in 2008, can the ‘guarantors’ of any recent agreement guarantee a revengeful Mian Sahib from striking again at Musharraf in the form of Article 6 or a Kargil commission?

While the army would certainly be concerned about its former chief’s security, it is highly unlikely that the GHQ would compromise on its declared policy of remaining neutral. .

The retired general should avoid dragging the army into any embarrassing situation. His recent call for the army to supervise elections is misplaced as it is the Election Commission’s constitutional responsibility to conduct free and fair elections.

Gen Musharraf would have learnt by now that Pakistan’s political culture is such where worshipping the rising sun is the golden principle that must be followed. Not surprisingly those who prospered politically, as well as financially, especially the PML-Q leadership or even the MQM did not welcome their old benefactor on his return to Pakistan.

It was during Musharraf’s rule that the MQM was rehabilitated and benefited the most. The party consolidated its power base in Karachi and improved its relations with security agencies. The despicable NRO, though annulled later by the Supreme Court, washed away hundreds of criminal cases against the MQM leaders/activists.

Will Gen Musharraf make any impact on Pakistani politics? Does he have a political future? His All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) is presently ill organised with limited membership and no worth while vote bank to make any noteworthy electoral gains. Some of his founding party leaders have already deserted him.

His success from Karachi’s NA-250 is possible but only with the MQM’s solid support. Getting elected from Chitral or even Islamabad seems highly remote. Should he, however, manage to enter parliament, he could lure back his old allies.

The retired general seems to be directing his energies more towards defending his past actions as a military ruler than his new role as a politician. He brushed aside fears of assassination and eloquently defended Kargil as a military victory turned into ‘political’ defeat.

He justified the Lal Masjid operation as essential to enforce the writ of the state. He emphatically rejects his involvement and responsibility in Akbar Bugti’s death.

That the going may become tough for Musharraf in the coming days is evident from a series of petitions filed against him in the Supreme Court with respect to November 03, 2007 declaration of emergency and the Lal Masjid tragedy.

Has Gen Musharraf been lured into a well laid out trap? Did he miscalculate the consequences of his 2007 related controversial actions? Already on the Exit Control List, he may feel the noose tightening around him as he could be dragged into lengthy legal battles in the cases of Bugti’s death, BB’s murder and judges’ detention pending against him in trial courts.

Frequent court visits will increase his vulnerability to assassination attempts. He fortunately survived two such attacks as president/army chief.

General (r) Musharraf has plunged into the fray. He will have to endure the turbulence and complexities of Pakistan’s politics. He will be facing a hostile media and an even more hostile lawyers’ community whose struggle led to the restoration of the judiciary that he had once sacked. Perhaps he was not aware that he was going back to a different Pakistan.

The writer is a retired brigadier. Email: fhkhan54@gmail.com