Time to reveal the truth

For the last six years I have struggled in vain to understand the logic of our policymakers and their spokespersons when it comes to dealing with extremism and terrorism. I see no sense and little consistency in their policy towards these challenges. It appears that they too have difficulty understanding the points raised by me in my criticism of their policy.

The fault may be mine. My analyses may be misguided or my poor command of Urdu and English may be responsible for this. But I am not sure if this is the case, for it seems to me that they have no reasonable case to make for how they have acted so far. So here I am, questioning, once again, their wisdom.

Our policymakers appear relaxed in view of what they may be seeing as achievements in the war on terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan. But what I see lying in store is total destruction. Our policymakers are happy that Fata and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are becoming peaceful, but what I see happening is Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad turning into new Waziristans. They hope to see peace in Afghanistan after 2014, and I fear a civil war there with calamitous consequences for Pakistan. It is not that all hope is lost; there are still good opportunities in sight for us to take advantage of. But they may perhaps be our last opportunities. Our policymakers have done nothing in the last one month to make one feel that they will not lose these opportunities as well.

To come to grips with the exact nature of the problem, I have met almost all political and military stakeholders concerned with the issue. I have even been in contact with the Taliban and with those who have a soft corner for them. This exercise has led me to one sorry conclusion – the Pakistani leadership stand bereft of an effective policy. They are adept at putting forward formulas for Afghanistan, but barren while dealing with the situation in Pakistan.

They are happy over the perceived success of the Taliban and the perceived defeat of Nato in Afghanistan. They are concerned over the activities of the Taliban in Pakistan. The most tragic aspect, however, is that their concern does not move them to action. Everyone favours dialogue with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and no one knows how to initiate dialogue with the Pakistani Taliban.

The political parties that are now in favour of dialogue with the Pakistani Taliban have no real agenda to speak of and posses no roadmap. In private, the leadership of rightwing parties, including the JUI and the JI, use the same language about the Taliban as that used by Rehman Malik. In public, they change their tone and content. They favour reconciliation with the Pakistani Taliban out of fear and political expediency, and not because this option has any real merit for them. This accounts for the absence of any clear agenda for the proposed reconciliation.

On the other hand, all those who have challenged the writ of the state are united, disciplined and mobilised. Their moves are well-coordinated, their influence is on the rise and their area of action is broadening with each passing day, as state institutions prefer the role of silent spectators. Balochistan and Karachi present an almost similar picture. Balochistan is burning and so is Karachi. With Fata and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also ablaze, how long can the centre and Lahore remain safe?

The present approach of our policymakers is centred on the possibilities related to the year 2014. They see the impending exit of foreign forces as a new dawn in Afghanistan. They think that once the Taliban are accommodated in the Afghan government, the Taliban in Pakistan may come under control. A decisive operation against the Pakistani Taliban is considered a workable solution once the Taliban are part of the government in Afghanistan. This line of reasoning cannot be more wrong.

First and foremost, it is difficult to believe that the Taliban would have the upper hand in any future government in Afghanistan. Even if the Taliban get a role in Afghanistan, extremism will not end in Pakistan. Regardless of the power configuration in Afghanistan after 2014, controlling extremists in Pakistan will become an almost impossible task. Use of force and reconciliation will then both become useless. Pakistan has one year left to settle this issue. Use of force could result in total collapse, so dialogue should be the way to settle this issue before 2014.

This is Pakistan’s last chance to resolve this internal security problem. The Afghan Taliban need Pakistani support till 2014 and in the same period we can urge – through them – the Pakistani Taliban to settle the issue on the negotiating table. Once the Afghan Taliban have no need of Pakistan’s cooperation, the situation will worsen.

The most dangerous hurdle lies in mistrust and a lack of coordination between the civil administration and the military on these issues. The military complains that a decision on whether to use force or opt for reconciliation should be made by civilians. The civilian leaders say they should not waste time in the effort since the military does not allow intervention in security matters.

The military says that after an operation in any area to clear it of extremists, it (the military) cannot sustain its presence or control for too long and that, due to lack of interest by the civilians, the sacrifices rendered by the military will go in vain. The civilians keep grumbling at their alleged lack of authority. The military whines that the civilian leadership is not clear and the civilians retort that this is due to grey areas left by the military. Political parties, especially the ANP, complain that the establishment has used them as puppets and harmed their popularity and writ.

The reaction over the TTP offer of dialogue is ample proof of confusion and lack of coordination. The political leadership is not ready to extend any guarantees about the military, while the military is waiting for a decision by the political leadership. Thus, this rare opportunity to move towards internal peace and security may be wasted. The gulf of mistrust between the military and the civilian leadership is now as wide as it can get. If the involvement of one neighbouring country in sectarian violence is mentioned, the military complains that it is due to the ‘free-hand policy’ of the government. If another neighbouring country is also said to be meddling in our internal affairs, the civilian leadership blames it on the military.

If you listen to one side, the other side is always the devil. The consequences of this have crippled us. The state cannot afford this anymore and a continuation of this problem would prevent a definite policy move. This would spell disaster for all.

It is time for a civilian-military dialogue. And to make this dialogue successful and fruitful let this exercise be open, transparent and frank. This dialogue can save Pakistan if it is done at the earliest. The nation should know the exact stance of each side. It is now time for the truth to be revealed. Is our civil leadership incompetent? Or is our military not obeying orders?

The writer works for Geo TV. Email: saleem.safi@janggroup.com.pk