The past is the future?

So, how is the 2013 election really to be decided? Are the patterns of the past to be followed based on old loyalties, feudal influence and the hold of the ‘biradari’ or clan system that still seems to persist in far too many places? Or are we to see ‘change’ in the form of new parties, chiefly Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf altering the existing order at least to some degree, with new persons entering parliament.

But no matter which group emerges as the largest party, it does not seem we are to see any real change in the basic paradigm of rule. Indeed, we see before us old formulas being followed, with both the PTI and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) working towards a seat arrangement with the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), led by the hardline Munawar Hassan.

Imran Khan has met Hassan at Mansoora in Lahore, and a JI delegation has subsequently met PML-N leaders, and will go wherever it can gain most advantage, using the 10,000 or so votes it is thought to be able to draw in many larger urban constituencies as a bargaining chip.

The fact that parties are courting the JI suggests a desire to maintain the status quo, with its religious-conservative nuances. Indeed, the PML-N also has an electoral agreement with the Sunni extremist group Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), the name under which the now banned Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan operates. There is no indication that anything has changed beyond its name, and the deal brings an especially unpleasant flavour to the mouth considering the increase in killings of Shias we have recently seen in the country.

All this though is the foreground for the polls. What is happening behind the scenes is equally significant. We need to keep an eye on what strings are being pulled and which figures shift position, like puppets on a stage, when these barely visible lines are tugged.

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will of course not be participating in the polls. In the past it has in fact opposed the standard democratic process, though today its line is a little more ambiguous on this matter. Its message though is remarkably, and frighteningly, clear. It has said that people should stay away from rallies staged by the Pakistan People’s Party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and the Awami National Party as these are likely to be attacked.

The definition made by the TTP of parties it sees as opposed to it is in some ways quite helpful to us. But of course such verdicts will influence the electoral campaign of these groups to one degree or the other, keeping people away. Not many are ready to risk their lives for the sake of a political meeting.

The recent grenade and gun attack on a girls’ school in Ittehad Town in Karachi, apparently targeting the ANP-affiliated headmaster who was shot dead and injuring six students, indicates that the militants are now a powerful force in that city too. Police talk of pockets within the city controlled by the group. This certainly does not augur well for the future.

The influence of the Taliban, their faces hidden in the political landscape like the ‘trick’ drawings of faces hidden amidst trees, is increasingly becoming more visible. In 1999, after assuming power through a military coup, General Pervez Musharraf had happily posed before the camera, cuddling his pet dogs and speaking of ‘moderate enlightenment’.

Today those pooches have vanished from the scene – hopefully being cared for in good hands somewhere or the other. Instead, on his arrival at the Karachi airport, Gen Musharraf, from beneath the protection of his bullet-proof vest, spoke of being a ‘good Muslim.’

In less than 15 years the landscape of the country has clearly changed. Since Musharraf presided over some nine of these years, he should be asking himself why things have changed so much, and why the militancy the commando had promised to eradicate, grown rather than been vanquished.

When we speak of change we need also to ask if the political parties have the capacity to bring change. Yes, they have flaws within them. A lack of commitment is a key factor, so is the lack of a clear vision. No one seems to have come up with a clear plan leading into the future. There are too many pathways branching out in all directions, with perks and privileges laid out at the end of them. These attract too many.

But there are issues beyond this. External forces lying outside the political realm play their part. We may be seeing before us a new chapter opening up of the ‘Great Game’ on in Afghanistan for years. Increasingly hostile relations with Kabul signal this. It also appears that the desire to attain power is more important to key elements here than building a safe, secure nation at home. Surely this should be the priority.

A parliament as divided as possible may make it easy to manipulate the next government into serving particular needs. This will not be dissimilar to what we have seen before. The only question is quite how the strings will be pulled and the ‘right persons’ chosen for the ‘right jobs’.

There are then many things to watch beyond the actual polling process itself. There is, sadly, as yet no suggestion that much will change as far as the wider picture goes, no matter how people vote or which candidates they choose.

More and more of the parties appear to follow almost exactly the same line with a few changes in nuance here and there. Still more significant than this is the network of strings hanging over them, manipulated by deft hands belonging to various groups who all wish, for their own reasons, to play some part in the way results pan out and who eventually comes to power. These barely visible hands will also need to be watched as we get closer and closer to the polling day.

The writer is a freelance columnist and former newspaper editor. Email: kamilahyat@ hotmail.com