The game-changer

The Iran nuclear deal is the single most important game-changer in world politics after the cataclysmic events of 9/11. In fact, the world has now started to change in real terms – after a pause of about 30 years.

The Soviet incursion and the Iranian revolution in 1979 shook the global balance. The Americans exited from Iran and the Russians got bogged down in Afghanistan. The Soviet Union splintered ultimately, giving birth to new equations. The fast emerging unipolar dispensation created a crisis-prone world polarised into the western narrative of clash of civilisations and anti-western jingoism. The fallout of the Afghan war precipitated into the strengthening of Al-Qaeda and the targeting of American interests worldwide.

9/11 transformed global politics fundamentally, bringing in its wake the war on terror. The Coalition of the Willing, spearheaded by the US, embarked upon a spree of nation-building to pulverise the established order. The then US president George Bush did not hesitate to target the so-called Axis of Evil by invading Iraq, browbeating North Korea and suffocating with sanctions the fiercely nationalistic Iran.

The world has been in a spin ever since. The continued turmoil in the Middle East and instability in Afghanistan have immensely impacted the lives of millions of people in these regions.

The deal in Geneva has suddenly changed the world scenario. Earlier, a showdown in Syria was averted by diplomatic efforts by Russian President Putin. US allies were restrained, by the pressure of public opinion in their respective countries, to join in with the American militaristic postures to dismantle Assad`s chemical weapons. The enigma of Iran`s nuclear ambitions has been the central point of diplomatic overtures for more than a decade. Israel has seen it as a challenge to its very existence.

Iran has built upon it the national ethos of its revolution and Iranian nationhood. The Ayatollahs had committed themselves to annihilate Israel with the help of all the might at their disposal and successive Iranian governments towed the line. The Ahmedinijad leadership hyped up the anti-Israel and anti-US pitch. The sanctions imposed by the west on Iran took a toll gradually. It was in this backdrop that a quiet counter-revolution in the form of Hassan Rouhani descended on Iranian soil.

The current Iranian president’s public resolve to have constructive engagement with the world, his empathy with the victims of the Holocaust, address in the UN General Assembly and engagement with the American youth, a 15-minute long conversation with President Obama and finally a willingness to come to terms with the P5+1 on Iran’s nuclear intentions paved the way for the nuclear deal.

The six-month interregnum of the deal will, in most probability, change the whole world order. It will be construed that in the longer run Iran has altered its trajectory to go for nuclear weapons. The terms of the agreement are going to pin Iran down to rehashing its overall national ethos. Besides, the new intrusive international inspections regime will bind it to re-evaluate its strategic paradigm altogether.

Has Hassan Rouhani factored all this in? Probably so. With his outstanding victory in the presidential elections, the warm welcome his foreign minister received on his return from Geneva and the explicitly verbal nod of approval from the Ayatollah, Rouhani is in a uniquely privileged position to chart a completely new course of action. This also makes it amply clear that Iran is no longer committed to annihilating Israel, the occasional verbal polemics and public posturing notwithstanding.

Iran also smells victory for itself in the agreement. The provision to retain its 1000 centrifuges churning out the requisite fissile material for energy enables it to safeguard its national pride without any compromise. Iran will feel comfortable with the agreed upon nuclear arrangement that keeps intact its nuclear potentials for future usage.

Israel, though, is feeling the heat of the nuclear deal. Although, the Americans must have taken their trusted allies on board before striking a deal with Iran, yet Netanyahu is showing his restlessness to his nation as well as the US. By painting the agreement as a historical mistake, he has made it convenient to dispatch his team of experts to Washington to forestall any possibilities of conceding more to Iran than has already been agreed upon.

On the face of it, Israel seems to have been taken by sheer surprise. By mounting hurried diplomatic forays to readjust and reshuffle its strategy for the Middle East, Isreal seems to be moving towards panic mode. Justice Minister and chief negotiator for the ongoing peace talks with Palestine, Tzipi Livni, has talked about the significance of clinching a deal with their counterparts in order to build up a joint front vis a vis Iran. They must also be brooding over the probabilities of Israel being put on the spot for its own nuclear ambitions and the weapons it was secretly stockpiling.

There is another sobering eventuality coming their way; the US and its allies seem to have decided to give diplomacy a chance in their future engagements worldwide. A new setup for dispensation of peace is what everyone would want to witness in this conflict-ridden world.

The writer is the president of the Institute of Regional Studies (IRS), Islamabad.  Email: ashrafazim2000@yahoo.com