The future of Afghanistan

Taliban are just 50km away from Afghanistan’s capital Kabul after having captured the Logar province and its provincial capital Pol-e Alam. Logar is Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s home province. In the last few days, the Taliban have also taken control of two important cities – Kandahar and Herat.

There is panic in Kabul. This panic is not only in the ranks of the Afghan government but also in the diplomatic community. Some Afghan ministers and other key officials have already fled the country. The Western powers that had occupied the war-torn nation for nearly two decades have now called on their citizens to leave the country.

Some European countries have also announced that they would close down their embassies in Kabul. The UK has announced that it would deploy 600 troops to facilitate the evacuation of Britons and local translators.

The Biden Administration has also announced it will be sending 3,000 troops to oversee the evacuation of its diplomats and other citizens. These troops will ensure that Kabul Airport remains operational during the process of evacuation.

Western powers are – yet again – abandoning the people of Afghanistan. They once again have been left to the mercy of the reactionary Taliban forces. Any dream of a better life, of stability, of peace and democracy, has been shattered and millions of Afghans now face a nightmare.

The Western powers have once again proved that they care little about women’s rights, democracy and independent media, with the Taliban now effectively controlling 18 out of 34 provinces and some important cities as the Afghan government continues to lose more ground on a daily basis.

It is really astonishing how little resistance the Taliban have faced so far. They did face some resistance in Kandahar and Herat, but not for long. According to media reports, veteran warlord and an influential political figure in Herat Ismael Khan, known as the ‘Lion of Herat’, not only surrendered before the Taliban after some resistance but is reported to also have joined the Taliban ranks along with his militia. Ismael Khan fought against Soviet troops and then the Taliban when they took power in 1996.

The much-talked-about resistance from the leftovers of the Northern Alliance and other warlords is not there. This is really surprising and raises many questions. The situation in Afghanistan is not developing in an abrupt or sudden way, but seems to be moving like a well-prepared plan – a plan to hand over the whole of Afghanistan to Taliban control.

The rapid advances made by the Taliban in northern Afghanistan, without facing much resistance, was not possible without making deals with local warlords and groups. The Taliban are making power-sharing deals with different tribal chiefs and warlords.

The Taliban are not far away from Kabul; in fact, within weeks they will be knocking at the doors of Kabul. Time is running out for President Ashraf Ghani. He has essentially been abandoned by his international and domestic allies. The Americans abandoned him a year ago when they signed a peace deal with the Taliban in February 2020 without taking him onboard. One by one, his local allies are also abandoning him.

Ghani was relying on American support and the Afghan National Army to hang on to power. But first the Americans ditched their handpicked president and then the Afghan army failed to defend his government against the Taliban offensive.

Ghani is now left with only two options. One is to resign and pave the way for a Taliban-led Afghan government that includes other groups. The second option is to stay in power until ousted by the Taliban through a military offensive. President Ghani is also under immense pressure to resign to avoid further death and destruction in Kabul.

The Taliban will use all kinds of pressure tactics to force Ghani to resign instead of directly attacking Kabul in the first place. As the siege of Kabul is not far away, it seems the Afghan government will not be able to last long.

The project of building a modern capitalist nation-state in Afghanistan has ended up in a big mess. The American-trained Afghan National Army and intelligence services failed to protect the Afghan state. The experiment of controlled democracy and handpicked presidents also failed. Not a single credible election was organised in twenty years. No concrete step was taken to reform the existing social-economic conditions and reactionary medieval tribal codes. Flawed American policies enabled the Taliban to make a comeback after being defeated.

Afghanistan’s infant democracy is now under threat along with democratic, political and women rights. Independent media and women will face the real repercussions of the Taliban’s victory.

We all know that the Taliban hold reactionary ideas. They are not going to change their views about women’s rights, democracy and constitutional rule. They are going to impose a conservative tribal and feudal social code in the areas they control.

The future of Afghanistan mainly depends on the policies and tactics used by the Taliban after taking power. There will be no stability and lasting peace even after their complete victory.

However, without developing infrastructure and expanding the economy, it will be hard for the Taliban to rule through just fear and the power of the gun. Their track record on the economy is pretty poor.

The people need jobs, economic opportunities and improvement in their lives. Afghanistan will thus need investment and resources for economic development.

One important factor in this regard will be the composition of the future government led by the Taliban, who will come under pressure from America and the UK to include moderate faces in the future setup. Figures like Hamid Karzai and others might be included to give more legitimacy to a Taliban government.

Their attitude and relations with different regional powers will be another factor that will determine the future of Afghanistan. Any resistance movement in Afghanistan against Taliban rule will not be able to sustain without the support of regional powers like Russia, China and Iran.

Better relations with these powers will depend on the Taliban’s policies towards their neighbours and their ability to strike power-sharing deals with proxies of these regional powers. The next few months are crucial for the future of Afghanistan.