The BJP`s dilemma

Whatever else Narendra Modi, chief minister of Gujarat, accomplishes in his fiercely ambitious drive to lead the Bharatiya Janata Party and to become prime minister of India, he has succeeded in creating rifts galore within civil society, within his party, with the party`s allies and in the country itself.

This is not a very promising beginning especially when details of his own culpability in the Ahmedabad riots have now been placed before a magistrate`s court in a 514-page protest petition filed by the 75-year-old Ms Zakia Jafri. Her husband, Ehsan Jafri, a Congress MP, was killed in the carnage at Gulberg Society in the city in 2002.

The protest petition challenges the clean chit given to Modi, his officials and58 politicians by a special investigation team appointed by the Supreme Court. The documents she cites have been widely reported by the media.

One detail suffices to show the gravity of the charges. The train carry-ing volunteers of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh activists was returning from Ayodhya when on the morning of Feb 27, 2002 it was torched at Godhra 59 of them died. A senior police officer testified that at a meeting convened by Chief Minister Modi that very evening he told the senior civil servants and police officials in explicit terms `Hindus must be allowed to vent their anger`.

The rift within the party can only undermine its prospects of success in the 2014 general election. Despite two defeats, in the 2004 and 2009 elections, L.K. Advani still nurses ambitions. In the event of a split vote within the party or a deadlock between rival parties, he might be accepted as an elder statesman. So he calculates.

There are two criminal cases pending against him alleging participation in a conspiracy to demolish the Babri Masjid in 1992. Since they did not prevent him from becoming union home minister anddeputy prime minister, he reckons, they will not impede his path towards the post of prime minister either.

But Advani faces a far more serious obstacle. The BJP`s leaders reckon that his shelf life has expired he cannot win the votes required to lead the party to victory.

It is now accepted by all that the days of single-party rule are gone. In the foreseeable future, coalitions will be the norm in India. A party which emerges as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha will attract allies. The smaller parties will shed reservations of old to share power. Advani is simply not seen as one who can help the party to win that position. Narendra Modi`s rise is due to the belief in the demoralised BJP that he can achieve the miracle.

Advani, who ironically saved Modi from dismissal in 2002, is opposed to his candidature for the prime minister`s post. Another irony his protégé Arun Jaitley, leader of the opposition in theRajya Sabha, supports Modi. The latter`s prospects became brighter after his third victory in the Gujarat assembly elections. But the crucial factor is the eventual stand of the RSS, the mentor, andindeed,creator ofthe BJP.

On Jan 22, 2013 the RSS relented and agreed to let its nominee Nitin Gadkari resign as president of the BJP following allegations of corruption. But it replaced him with another RSS faithful Rajnath Singh. He is no supporter of Advani and tirelessly sings praises of Modi while keeping the options for 2014 open. `We are very proud of the leadership of Narendra Modi. But who shall be the PM candidate of the BJP, the party`s parliamentary board will decide at the appropriate time.

The BJP`s National Council meeting which concluded on March 3, gave Modi a rousing reception with Rajnath Singh reviving the cry of Hindutva as the party`s credo and construction of a Ram temple on the ruins of the Babri Masjid.It was a prelude to what followed at the end of the month. On March 31, the BJP president Rajnath Singh inducted Narendra Modi into the party`s apex decision-making bodies, the parliamentary board and the central election committee.

Modi will thus wield powerful influence in the selection of the party`s candidates for election to the Lok Sabha next year. They will be beholden to him for the party ticket and will vote for him in the election to the leader of the parliamentary party eligible to be called in to form a government, if the BJP musters the required strength. Advani has made it known to all that none of this would deter him from persisting in his drive for the prime minister`s job.

Addressing party workers, on April 6, he asserted that he very much remains `active in politics` with a `dream to make India the greatest nation` That he felt the need to deliver that reminder at all is a measure of hisadversity. Senior leaders, like two former foreign ministers, Jaswant Singh and Yashwant Singh, were dropped.

The new party executive is heavily laden with fanatical advocates of Hindutva. Success has not madeModi complacent. He opened an important front by making a bid to secure the support of the corporate sector and the middle class by flaunting his planks of development and speedy clearance for industrial projects. Top guns of the industry like Mukesh and Anil Ambani paid fulsome tributes to him with Ratan Tata joining enthusiastically in the conclave.

Bihar`s Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who is in coalition with the BJP, has openly rejected Modi`s credentials. His party, Janata Dal (United) is an ally of the BJP at the national level with its president Sharad Yadav as convener of the BJP-dominated National Democratic Alliance.

Narendra Modi plans to tour the country in July. He will succeed only in dividing the nation with unfortunate consequences. His rhetoric is coarse and his appeal rabidly anti-secular. •

The writer is an author and a lawyer.