Time is tenseless. Calendars are an illusion. Events don’t follow schedules. They happen regardless of the hour. But even then the human need to pin planning to dates and create cut-off points and deadlines is inescapable. After all this is how we all get a sense of control of our lives.
The template of temporal existence requires constant referral to turning points in the otherwise seamless flow of ages. A year ending and a year beginning thus becomes a useful standpoint to reflect, wish and even forecast.
What can 2016 mean for Pakistan’s political sphere? Much depends on what the ruling party, the Pakistan Muslim League-N, does or does not do this year. For the N-League, the path is fairly clearly laid out. In a way, it does not need any guidance as to what it needs to do in the new year. It has accumulated enormous power. The local bodies election success has spread its mandate far and wide. From the president down to the ward councillor, the League has everything under its control. Now it has to begin to deliver goods and services in an organised, efficient and deliberate way. Punjab, the province where its rule has the maximum reach, has to turn the corner on good governance.
By this we do not mean more pictures of the chief minister and his after-the-event media-grabbing hyper activity. Nor do we mean that the prime minister of this country acting like the head of a mobile circus, hopping from one destination to another ribbon-cutting projects, addressing forced gatherings, making idle speeches. That order of 2015 has to give way to more intelligent governance done through policy reform, legislative measures and sincere debate in parliament – forums that both brothers (and their relatives in power) have been treating with visible disdain.
The surest sign of the League leaders attempting to change their personalised way of running the country will come when they begin to rule through institutions, diluting the family’s hold over levers of power. Will we see this happen this year?
An honest answer is no. The country will have more of the same. The Sharifs’ hardened habits are unlikely to change for several reasons.
Last year’s political successes are one reason. The Sharifs seem to believe that they have overcome the worst hump in their power ride. Now firmly established in their seats, they would rather continue doing what has served them so well so far than to change it. In other words, there is neither any pull nor push for the Sharifs to think of governance in terms other than a series of projects and a lot of projection of themselves as managers. The vision-thing is a needless thought, not required in a country that isn’t really a realm of competing ideas.
The other reason the Sharifs might stay the same is the nature of advice given to them. Since they live in an echo chamber abuzz with praise from those they handpick in the first place, there isn’t much that is poured into their ears by way of counter theses. What they say and do is always the right thing to say and do. The bureaucrats who serve them have been so decisively co-opted that they practically serve them in their personal capacity even though they draw salaries as servants of the state.
The political group, the kitchen cabinet, is simply a family affair. The media is considered a ‘manageable soundbox’ whose criticism can be either ignored or turned into friendly advice by using carrots and sticks. Also after having weathered the worst combined onslaught of media houses backed by formidable state actors during dharna days, the Sharifs and their media managers have come to understand the limits of public criticism. Battle hardened and thick-skinned, they now know that words alone shall not break their political bones.
Yet another reason for the Sharifs staying the same relates to the blundering and chaotic nature of their opponents. There is sweet irony in Jehangir Tareen getting sworn in as member of a parliament against whose honour, dignity, and probity he funded a long, expensive campaign in the shape of dharna expenses. With him coming into the National Assembly, it is expected that Imran Khan, who does not move an inch without Mr Tareen approving it, too will shift the remains of his protest politics inside parliament. This means that the heat of the street will finally end for the Sharifs. While sporadic agitation and event-based processions will appear on the landscape, the threat of a nation-wide, go-Nawaz-go movement is now a thing of the past.
Further, Imran Khan does not seem to have any strong political goods to sell in the market of public opinion. He has fired his best salvo on the secondary target of rigging. With that attempt falling short (useful reminder: the aim of the rigging mantra was not to reform the system but to throw out the government) now he is reduced to pointing to government flaws in eventless press conferences that give him media face-time but have zero substance.
For now he does not seem to have any rallying cry that offers hope to the millions miffed at the country’s slow and sputtering progress. Driven by hubris and now humbled by circumstances, his politics today is to ‘play along’ rather than ‘spoil the game’.
This is tailor-made for the Sharifs. They could not have wished for a better opponent than Mr Khan in 2016 – confrontationist yet cooperative; combative yet co-opted, agitational yet ineffective, out-of-the box yet so in-the-box! This year the Sharifs will not be worrying too much about Imran Khan, and therefore will focus on their traditional ways of ruling through semi-authoritarian and unaccountable ways.
Generally, when so much political power gravitates towards one centre, the most formidable player on the chessboard, the Establishment, begins to flex its muscles. In 2016 this historical source of political tension and friction is likely to say dormant. This is General Raheel Sharif’s last year in office. The new army chief’s selection sets in motion internal debates and interests that pretty much neutralise the army commander’s ability to create more elbow space for himself. This is called the lame-duck phase.
Even if the Sharifs offer General Raheel Sharif an extension (a year’s extension will knock out the top-brass roster for the next four years) that itself makes it very difficult for the army commander to lock horns with his political bosses. At any rate, the Sharifs have given no reason to the army high command to feel agitated. The only exception would be India, but there Washington has been helpful in easing down the Establishment’s worries. By and large the Sharifs have remained in a state of permanent salute to General Raheel, who has a clear bent for recognition and acknowledgement.
From Khyber to Karachi and from Fata to FWO, the Sharifs have been unquestioning in endorsing everything that has come out of the GHQ. That has worked wonders for them. Their two-year investment in the stocks of gratitude and applause has matured. In 2016 they will cash it to their delight.
All of this means that the new year will see the Sharifs dominate the political scene with the PTI relying on the defensive-offensive strategy. Barring exceptional developments – war with India, Karachi operation becoming a do or die battle with the PPP, the army chief’s appointment or extension issue being mishandled or Imran Khan discovering a genuine cause to embarrass the government – national politics is unlikely to witness unusual eruptions. For most governments in power this would be good news.
For the Sharifs this is likely to translate into the wrong conclusion that they are entitled to now do as they please. One can only hope that they don’t draw this conclusion, but their record tends to militate against such positive thoughts.
Can the Sharifs rewrite their history and change the 2016 political calendar? We will know in another few months.
Email: syedtalathussain@gmail.com
Twitter: @TalatHussain12
Syed Talat Hussain, "The 2016 political calendar," The News. 2016-01-04.Keywords: Political science , Political parties , Local elections , Good governance , Policy reform , Legislative measures , Imran Khan , Jehangir Tareen , General Raheel , Nawaz Sharif , Pakistan , GHQ , FWO , 2016