Tension in Korea

The North Korean soldiers shown parading on TV recently mercifully didn’t have the gusto of German troops goose-stepping in 1914, which amply demonstrated their over enthusiasm for war nearly a century ago, the sad consequences of which need no repetition. This could well be because they had been through these drills before, but the developments took an ugly turn when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un scrapped the armistice with South Korea and issued apocalyptic warnings, threatening world peace.

From North Korea’s point of view, there are good reasons to feel aggrieved, starting with massive civilian deaths (1.5 million by some estimates) with every city of any significance flattened in the Korean War. The horrors of Dresden and Hiroshima get mentioned in the global calendar regularly but not of the Korean War which were no less gruesome.

For nearly six decades, US nuclear weapons have remained deployed in South Korea against the north. President Clinton had threatened North Korea with surgical strikes and implementation on the 1994 ‘Agreed Framework’, signed after intensive negotiations, has been stalled since 2003.

‘Rumbling clouds do not pour’ may be the international consensus and North Korea’s motive in frenzied rhetoric could well be to rattle US sufficiently to restart a dialogue on the implementation of the Agreed Framework, yet the real danger is the huge scope for miscalculations emerging from years of confidence shattering incidents in the region, which is a cause for global concern. The last time this strategy worked was when North Korea issued the 90 days notice to pull out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It ‘suspended’ the treaty on the 89th day after the move had resulted in the desired effect to kick-start diplomatic activity.

In the realm of global politics, there are diversified and competing interests at play in the Korean peninsula. China is not really interested in a unified Korea as it is from there that the US could exert greater pressure on its borders. South Korea too may be less enthusiastic about unification than it feigns for reasons of cost alone as the identical German model has shown, neither does a strong united Korea serve Japan’s commercial interests.

Russia, not otherwise averse to fishing in troubled waters, is pre-occupied on its western borders and would prefer quiet on the east. In all this, US interests are predominant in seeking change of regime, unification (with South Korea bearing the cost) and military presence in united Korea to supplement bases in Japan, Philippines and Australia besides island bases as its sword arm to pursue economic goals during what it calls the ‘Pacific Century’.

Yet it would seem that the consequent understanding on ‘Agreed Framework’, which entailed replacement of three weapon grade plutonium producing reactors with two safer light water rectors, oil for power generation in the interim, a formal assurance from the US to North Korea against nuclear threat, denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, IAEA inspections, non-processing of spent nuclear fuel, and Pyongyang’s continued membership of the NPT did sufficiently address mutual concerns between the US and North Korea but as usual the devil lies in the details.

The hiatus in US-North Korea since 2003 has introduced some new elements such as the recent launch of a satellite into orbit and a successful nuclear test that make North Korea one of the three countries to field a missile on the US mainland, the other two being Russia and China.

In conventional weaponry too, its capabilities have been steadily on the rise. Converting military potential into political advantage is something which goes on all the time in the international arena and North Korea could hardly be expected to be an exception.

No gainsaying that peace in this region is in the collective interest of everyone though China and the US hold all the trumps required to diffuse the crisis. Whatever else they do, it might be worthwhile to understand that nuclear physics and knowledge cannot be starved to death – it didn’t work with Pakistan and it won’t work with North Korea or Iran for that matter. North Koreans need some breathing space less of international reviling.

The ongoing US-South Korean posturing must be toned down since it is having exactly the opposite effect. North Korea has positioned a couple of untested 2500-miles range Musudan missiles on mobile launchers in underground silos which could theoretically reach Guam with a light payload.

As yet another indicator that this crisis may be spinning out of control, South Korea’s ministry of defence has announced adopting new contingency plans called ‘active deterrence’ which would permit the military to carry out pre-emptive attacks against the North in the face of ‘an imminent nuclear or missile attack’.

China is moving tanks and armoured vehicles to the border with a twin goal of showing its treaty commitments with Pyongyang and as a contingency for dealing with possible large scale refugee influx. The latest South Korean military assessment reflects their apprehensions that North Korea may be closer to a missile launch. It is such suspicions and counter-suspicions which are dangerous and should not be ignored.

The longer this crisis persists it may be helping North Korea to edge towards a position that its nuclear status is now non-negotiable. Internally, Kim Jong-un is fast emerging as a strong and popular leader, no less capable in the eyes of his subjects than his father and grandfather. North Korea’s ‘new strategic line’, which aims at balancing economic pursuits with nuclear ambitions, will further consolidate Kim’s rule and work against US objectives of regime change. If Kim is ever toppled, it will happen when he is weak and discredited and not the other way around.

Meanwhile, other dangerous and previously unknown variables are quietly creeping in like the recent cyber attack, which targeted thousands of South Korean companies with a deadly malware causing complete chaos and financial losses yet to be calculated. The attack, dubbed as Dark Seoul, was initially suspected to originate from North Korea but later traced to China, Europe and the US.

Interestingly, an informal rule book titled ‘Tallinn Manual on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Warfare’ now permits nations to respond to such attacks with military responses. With thousands of US troops stationed in South Korea, would a breakdown of services in their offensive capabilities by some suspected North Korean hacker, trigger an ugly incident? If that happens, it would mean initiating wars based on suspicions alone and would have profoundly changed the nature of future conflicts.

Thorbjorn Jagland, chairman of the Noble Peace Prize Committee, recently wanted President Obama to return the peace prize for falling short on his promises made after taking office. The deferment of Minuteman 3 missile test by the Pentagon is a positive step to diffuse tension but if Obama really loves peace and wants to retain the prize, he has to do more. A sensible approach may be to get back to what has already been agreed and resolve the sticking points; which complicated as they are, impossible they are not.

The writer is a retired vice-admiral. Email: tajkhattak@ymail.com