South Africa’s leadership crisis after Mandela

By the end of his mandate, South Africa’s first black president, Nelson Mandela, had succeeded in uniting a nation that not long before had been on the brink of a racial civil war. But with a general election due in the first half 2014, it has become apparent that his post-apartheid legacy remains unfinished. After nearly 20 years of continuous government by Mandela’s African National Congress (ANC) – still by far the strongest political force in the country – serious problems abound. They include widespread poverty, substandard educational facilities and corruption.

“The ANC has succeeded from a weak baseline to do a heck of a lot for South Africa and deserves credit for that,” says Eusebius Mckaiser, a political commentator. “However, the reality is there have been many squandered opportunities,” he says, noting that “we remain one of the most unequal societies on the planet.” The current president, Jacob Zuma, was initially brought in by the ANC to reduce poverty, after the party grew tired of the neo-liberal policies of his predecessor, Thabo Mbeki.

Zuma’s pro-trade union approach and populist style helped him secure the party leadership and enjoy support from key ANC power bases. But the president is now losing support as he jumps from scandal to scandal, in particular allegations that he spent millions of dollars of public money on his private rural homestead in Nkandla, in KwaZula Natal Province.

“When it comes to President Zuma, clearly there is increasing pressure on him from ANC supporters. There is increasing suspicion and dissatisfaction,” says political analyst Daniel Silke. Zuma was booed by a large section of the crowd at the Soweto football stadium memorial for Mandela, an embarrassing moment for him in front of the world’s leaders.

“The people are tired of Zuma. The party reelected him, it is true, but the people are done with him. Zuma munches too much money, like in Nkandla. Too much is going to his friends and even back to him. They should first be doing for the people and then for themselves, but it is vice versa,” says Nhlanhla Mbatha, a 42-year-old teacher at a public high school in Johannesburg.

There is little danger that the ANC will lose the next election. But there is the risk that the party could hemorrhage support from a younger generation of South Africans craving a modern political organisation, and not just one that likes to rest on past laurels. While the ANC should deserve credit for helping end formal racial segregation, building million of homes for the poor and helping create a black middle class, McKaiser believes that people are now starting to judge the party more critically, as they seek top quality leaders.

“We are seeing a shift in democratisation, in one respect: people are beginning to dislodge their own memory of ANC as a liberation movement and be able to separate that memory from the ANC in government,” he explains. For Zuma and the others at the top who have tried to shrug off corruption allegations by pointing to successes of the past, this could spell trouble.

“We are developing a more sophisticated political culture where we are holding individual leaders accountable and we are no longer saying the idea of collective leadership is enough to let Jacob Zuma off the hook as an individual,” says McKaiser. Despite the lingering inequalities under ANC rule, South Africans are not craving for a revolution.

“Broadly speaking, South Africans are not looking for more radical policies,” says Silke. “They are looking for cleaner and more effective governance.”

Experts point to fate of Julius Malema, the young, fire-brand politician who was kicked out of the ANC last year. His new party, Economic Freedom Front, has failed to attract support despite adopting nationalist policies closer to those of Zimbabwean autocrat Robert Mugabe. “The leadership crisis is not intractable. It’s up to the ANC to be responsive to the people,” says McKaiser. One person often on the lips of the crowd during the Mandela celebrations at the Soweto stadium was Cyril Ramaphosa, the trade union leader who was the chief ANC negotiator at the end of apartheid. He has gone on to make a fortune in the private sector.

“I think many people like Cyril Ramaphosa, but they are maybe not yet sure if he is ready to do the job of leading,” says Basil Dlalisa, an ANC supporter. Appointed deputy president by Zuma to help solidify his own position in the ANC, Ramaphosa is now working hard to build a personal support base within party branches. Mandela himself, the ANC experts note, had hoped that Ramaphosa might one day lead the party.