No government in Pakistan has ever inherited a graver and more existentially challenging set of crises and problems than the PML-N-led national government will do when it formally assumes office on June 5, 2013. The PML-N has acquired, controversially or not, a clear national mandate to bring about comprehensive and fundamental change in the prevailing lethal status quo.
Accordingly, the new government will be saddled with massive national expectations for rapid and palpable progress on several fronts. Meeting these expectations will be a massive and ambitious undertaking.
Those who caution against ‘idealism’ and ‘impatience’ and counsel only incremental changes in the status quo so as not to ‘rock the boat’ will not be giving realistic advice to the prime minister. These are not normal times. Pakistan’s challenges are too many and too threatening. There is simply no time to adopt a laid-back and tentative approach. Pakistan needs to ‘make haste slowly’ which means taking the necessary time to prepare, consult and plan thoroughly, and then to implement rapidly and effectively.
Within the first 100 days, judgements will start being formed about the likely performance of the new federal and provincial governments over their mandated periods of five years. It is crucial for their credibility to generate sufficient reforms and results to ensure that, on balance, the first serious assessments are as positive as possible. The famous Persian saying “gurba kushtan rooz-e-avval” has time-tested wisdom.
The long list of immediate crises facing the country is well known. The list of longer-term threats – which is even scarier – is also known. They add up to the reality that the sovereign independence and viability of the country are, both internally and externally, challenged.
The disappearing writ of federal and provincial governments, the emerging dominance of mafias, militants and militias, the perception of a failing and disintegrating nuclear weapons state and the rule of the criminally irresponsible and incompetent elite has rendered Pakistan’s strategic location its greatest security liability.
Under such circumstances, no true leader, in such circumstances, can afford even a moment’s rest. There has to be a near total obsession with new ideas, due diligence and good governance if the mountain of threatening challenges is to be surmounted. Nothing less than a national transformation strategy (NTS) needs to be quickly considered.
It will need to be discussed, elaborated, data-fed, broken down into several subsets of national and provincial policies, road mapped and action planned, approved, institutionalised, funded, publicly and externally supported through a whole set of communication, information and diplomatic strategies and initiatives, etc.
This whole process will have to be organised, prepared and driven by the prime minister and a dedicated staff at the national level and the chief ministers at the provincial level.
Once launched upon a long-term path of rapid and inclusive growth, the process will develop momentum. But to get on to such a growth path there will be several very difficult – even risky – political, security, social and economic choices and decisions to be made to deal with immediate issues of great urgency.
This will need to be done carefully and in consultation with all the ‘stakeholders’ in order to overcome specific reservations and resistance. However, the critical element will be leadership at the national and provincial levels.
In this way, the ground will be prepared for a planned and consensus- or near consensus-based rapid implementation of an approved national transformation strategy which will provide the framework, criterion and validation of national and provincial policies.
What will the NTS consist of? Essentially, it will entail the setting of an ambitious but achievable average GDP growth-rate target for the next two decades, accompanied by an equally ambitious set of development indices or goals – conceptually similar to the UNDP’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) – but modified to suit Pakistan’s conditions and requirements.
Without such development goals, even if a high economic growth rate is achieved for a while it will result in ‘growth without development’ (GWD). This means a disjuncture between economic growth and social and individual progress for the common person.
Pakistan is considered a major example of such ‘useless’ growth which benefits the elite while leaving the society and communities out in the cold. Growth without development can never provide the basis for transformative or ‘developmental’ growth. That is why a national transformation strategy is essential for Pakistan to graduate from growth without development to rapid transformative growth (RTG.)
This is what China has essentially accomplished since 1979. Other developing countries have made similar, if less spectacular, progress along a path of RTG. Pakistan, however, has never really set foot on such a path despite having periods of rapid growth in the past.
That is why it is never mentioned today, on any list of ‘break out nations’ ie nations climbing the development ladder and considered attractive for foreign direct investment (FDI). It is stuck in a permanent poverty trap where no human rights or effective political participation – and certainly no real democracy – is possible for the masses.
China’s Four Modernisations (agriculture, industry, defence, and science and technology), opening up and reform, and subsequent development models and strategies have comprised its national transformation strategy to become a secure, middle income and prosperous country. On this basis, it intends to build its progress towards a better democracy and making a vital contribution to regional and international peace and cooperation. It has its ‘red lines’ (Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, non-interference) which it will not compromise. But it has not allowed its disputes and differences with neighbouring countries, and also with the US, to distract it from accomplishing this transformation task.
Pakistan should seek to learn from its great friend and neighbour. Pakistan’s US, Afghan, India and security policies – while very important – should be conceptualised and implemented in a manner that supports a NTS considered and approved by the prime minister. These policies, whatever the circumstances or provocations, should not derail the NTS, which is critical to resolving the challenges faced by Pakistan.
Unfortunately, Pakistan’s economic and development; defence and security; external; education and human resource development; fiscal, tax, debt and inflation management; environmental; and human rights, law and order and regional harmony and reconciliation policies have never been formulated and implemented within the vision and framework of an overall development and transformative strategy such as the NTS. As a result, they have often pulled in different directions and have failed to be mutually consistent and reinforcing.
Pakistan has fallen behind even Bangladesh on the development index even though it has had marginally higher growth rates. Since GWD cannot sustain high growth rates for any length of time, Bangladesh is likely to overtake and surpass Pakistan in the economic growth rate stakes also.
To put it bluntly, even if Pakistan achieves moderate growth rates in the short run but continues to have ‘least developed’ economic and social indices it will absolutely fail to sustain such growth rates nor will it be able to successfully address any of its security, domestic and external challenges. This is the message the prime minister and chief ministers should hear and proclaim as they assume their truly grave responsibilities.
Sincerity of leadership is, of course, essential. But it is not sufficient. It will need to be supported by an approved transformation strategy as described. Within such a framework all the internal and external challenges can be effectively tackled. Outside of it, immediate and necessary relief and scattered progress may indeed be achieved. However, they will be fragile and temporary. They will not lead to a prosperous, secure and happy Pakistan. They may even meet re-election criteria. But they will not leave a worthy legacy for the incoming leadership.
The writer is a former envoy to the US and India.Email: ashrafjqazi@yahoo.com
Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, "Sincerity is not enough," The News. 2013-06-04.Keywords: Economics , Economic policy , Economic issues , Armed forces , Policy making , National development , Economic growth , Economy-Pakistan , Economic development , Foreign investment , Development policy , Diplomacy , Democracy , United States , Afghanistan , Bangladesh , Pakistan , China , India , PMLN , NTS , GDP , MDGs , GWD , RTG