Seeds, silos and sovereignty

In an era characterised by climate instability, conflict and disruptions in global supply chains, food security has emerged as a critical concern for vulnerable economies.

A recent joint report by the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) highlights the significance of Strategic Grain Reserves (SGRs) as an essential mechanism to safeguard nations against potential food crises. The report examines the role of SGRs as buffers during periods of food shortages, price fluctuations and emergencies, particularly in countries experiencing multiple, overlapping challenges.

The findings of this report are especially pertinent for Pakistan. With its extensive agricultural base and population exceeding 240 million, Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to food insecurity, exacerbated by internal systemic issues and external shocks.

The country’s recent difficulties with wheat procurement, rising food inflation, and unpredictable weather patterns indicate an urgent need for comprehensive reforms in its food security strategy. Establishing Strategic Grain Reserves could be a vital element of this strategy, ensuring that food remains accessible and affordable amidst disruptions. Agriculture constitutes one of the most critical sectors of Pakistan’s economy, contributing approximately 24 per cent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employing around 37 per cent of the labour force, predominantly in rural areas.

Agriculture also significantly supports Pakistan’s export economy, directly through products such as rice, fruits and vegetables, or indirectly through cotton and textiles. The livelihood of millions of Pakistanis is intricately linked to the performance of this sector. However, this fundamental pillar of the economy is facing increasing challenges.

One of the most persistent issues is the stagnation and decline in crop productivity. Various factors contribute to this trend, including soil degradation, a shortage of quality certified seeds, limited access to modern agricultural equipment, and fragmented landholdings that hinder the achievement of economies of scale. Many farmers continue to depend on traditional practices, often handed down through generations, and encounter difficulties in accessing contemporary research or innovative techniques.

Water scarcity presents another growing threat. Pakistan ranks among the most water-stressed countries globally, with its agriculture heavily reliant on the Indus River system. Inefficient irrigation practices and unregulated groundwater extraction have exacerbated this crisis. Rising input costs such as those for fertilisers, diesel and electricity have further increased production expenses, straining the already narrow profit margins of smallholder farmers.

These systemic challenges are compounded by the severe impacts of climate change. Over the past decade, Pakistan has experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of weather events, including floods, droughts, and heatwaves. The floods in 2022 displaced millions and inundated extensive areas of farmland, resulting in the loss of entire harvests. Climate-induced alterations in planting seasons and erratic rainfall patterns have rendered traditional agricultural calendars unreliable, thus jeopardizing food production and rural incomes. Despite these significant challenges, there have been isolated instances of success.

The adoption of hybrid seeds in crops such as rice and maize has resulted in notable yield improvements in recent years. These examples of success illustrate the potential of technology and innovation to enhance productivity; however, they remain more the exception than the rule.

In the current complex landscape, Strategic Grain Reserves (SGRs) presents a practical and potentially transformative solution to address food security challenges. As delineated in the recent report by the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), and the World Food Programme (WFP), SGRs are publicly managed stocks of grain designated for utilisation during emergencies, market disruptions, or supply shortages. These reserves have the potential to stabilise prices, deter speculative hoarding, support vulnerable populations and provide essential relief during disasters.

SGRs can fulfill multiple objectives concurrently. In nations such as Pakistan, where a substantial segment of the population allocates over 40 per cent of household income to food expenditures, even modest increases in staple food prices can drive families into states of hunger. By releasing stocks into the market during periods of shortage, the government can stabilise prices, safeguard consumer purchasing power and mitigate food inflation. In disaster scenarios such as floods, droughts or pandemics, SGRs facilitate the immediate distribution of essential grains, including wheat and rice, without reliance on time-intensive imports or market-based procurement.

These reserves can also support smallholder farmers by guaranteeing markets through minimum support prices (MSPs) during procurement seasons. Consequently, they serve as both a social safety net and a market-stabilising mechanism, benefiting both producers and consumers.

Pakistan maintains public grain stocks primarily through the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (PASSCO) and provincial food departments. These entities procure wheat during harvest seasons and distribute it to flour mills during lean periods. However, these operations are hindered by inefficiencies, inadequate infrastructure, corruption, and politicised decision-making. The lack of adequate storage facilities, particularly outdated open-air godowns, results in significant post-harvest losses, occasionally reaching up to 20 per cent.

The absence of digital inventory management systems, real-time data sharing, and transparent procurement protocols undermines public trust and impedes effective management. Without substantial structural reforms, Pakistan’s current stockpiling system will be ill-equipped to meet the escalating challenges of food insecurity.

The World Bank, FAO and WFP report provides a strategic framework that Pakistan can adapt to establish a more resilient and efficient grain reserve system. Foremost among these recommendations is the modernisation of storage infrastructure. Investment in climate-resilient silos, metal bins, and warehouse receipt systems can significantly reduce spoilage and enhance inventory management.

It is equally essential to articulate clear policy objectives. Whether the reserves are intended for price stabilisation, emergency relief, or support for farmers, these goals must be expressly defined and backed by standard operating procedures. A central coordinating authority, potentially under the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, should oversee the operations of SGRs to prevent overlap and inefficiencies.

Integrating digital tools for tracking inventories, forecasting demand, and enhancing transparency is also critical. Connecting SGR operations with climate early warning systems, national nutrition initiatives, and social safety nets such as the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) can improve targeting and responsiveness. The role of the private sector should also not be underestimated. Public-private partnerships can prove instrumental in constructing storage infrastructure, managing logistics, and even operating certain reserves under governmental oversight. Such collaborations can alleviate the fiscal burden on the state while enhancing operational efficiency.

While SGRs are indispensable, they are not a panacea. Pakistan must also pursue structural reforms within its agricultural framework to achieve long-term food security. A key focus area is seed development. The public sector must revitalise agricultural research institutions such as the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC) and the National Institute for Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering (NIBGE) while fostering private sector innovation in certified seed production, particularly climate-resilient and high-yield varieties.

Reforms in land tenure and consolidation could facilitate easier access to credit and mechanisation services for smallholders. To enhance productivity, the government should consider leasing cooperatives, contract farming, and digitising rural land. Concurrently, subsidies and credit schemes must be restructured to promote sustainable agricultural practices rather than perpetuate reliance on water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice.

Pakistan must also diversify its cropping patterns. An overreliance on a limited number of staples has rendered the system vulnerable to shocks. Horticulture, pulses, oilseeds and livestock farming should be provided with incentives, as they are generally more adaptable and often more profitable. Developing value chains and agro-processing industries can also bolster rural employment and diminish post-harvest losses.

Lastly, incorporating climate resilience into agricultural policy is imperative. The government must advocate for climate-smart practices, invest in weather forecasting capabilities and implement crop insurance schemes to assist farmers in managing risks. Pakistan can also seek international support through climate financing to facilitate adaptation efforts.