Scenarios

Capital suggestion

Scenario number 1: The PML-N will complete its mandated tenure. A total of 14.8 million voters voted for the PML-N and the party now has 149 general, 35 reserved and 6 minority seats. That’s a total of 190 in a house of 342. The PML-N’s political sustainability is beyond any doubt and the party, at its own discretion, can call for elections any time between now and May 2018.

Scenario number 2: Mid-term elections. In General Election 2013, the PML-N bagged 14,874,104 votes followed by the PTI with 7,679,954 votes and the PPP with 6,911,218 votes. If the PML-N is somehow forced into holding mid-term elections the probability is that one of three political parties would end up controlling the prime minister’s office – the PML-N, PTI or PPP.

In all probability, a government resulting from mid-term elections would not be much different from what Pakistan has seen before.

Scenario number 3: Martial law. According to Zuha Saeed, we have had five and a half martial laws. General Azam Khan’s local martial law in 1953; Field Marshal Ayub Khan’s in 1958; General Yahya Khan’s in 1969; Zufikar Ali Bhutto became the Chief Martial Law Administrator in 1971; General Ziaul Haq’s in 1977 and General Musharraf’s in 1999.

For the record, Thailand has had more than a dozen martial laws over the past 80 years. Other countries with at least some history of martial laws include Turkey, Egypt, Ireland, Israel, Korea, Mauritius, the Philippines, Poland, Canada, the US and Yugoslavia.

In Pakistan, Pakistanis have always celebrated the taking over of the government by an army general. With the army, there seem to be a general consensus that army officers are not trained to govern. Within the army, there also seem to be a general consensus that the political class is not taking Pakistan in the right direction.

Scenario number 4: A technocratic setup. A technocracy is a form of governance where decision-makers are not elected but are “chosen for a governing office based on their technical expertise and background”.

Decision making in the Pakistani form of democracy is undertaken by elected individuals generally on the basis of their opinions. In a technocracy, decision-making is undertaken by chosen individuals on the basis of “information derived from methodology rather than opinion”. In a technocracy, decision-making revolves around ‘data-oriented problem-solving’ (admittedly, scenario number 4 is a derivative of scenario number 3).

The biggest of all questions is: ‘What can technocrats achieve that politicians cannot?’ Around the world, it is always in times of crisis that technocracy comes up. In the Great Depression of the early 1930s, technocracy became popular in the US and Canada. The Greek debt crisis brought in Economist Lucas Papademos as PM (replacing politician PM George Papandreou). The Italian debt crisis brought in Economist Mario Monti as PM (replacing politician Silvio Berlusconi).

The ground reality is that PM Nawaz Sharif is up against at least four serious challenges. One, a major humanitarian crisis on the IDP front. Two, a crucial civil disobedience movement. Three, a major blowback of Operation Zarb-e-Azb which the civilian administration will not be able to handle. Four, civil-military mistrust.

The ground reality is that the war on terror will move into urban centres. The ground reality is that we are moving towards military tribunals and army-led joint operation centres in all major cities. The ground reality is that the nucleus of state power has already moved from Islamabad to Rawalpindi. The PML-N is clearly dependent on the GHQ’s support.

Conclusion: The probability of mid-term elections is getting higher by the day. The probability of an outright martial law remains low. The statistical significance of scenario number 4 cannot – and should not – be ignored.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com.

Twitter: @saleemfarrukh