Russian veto points to ‘grim future’ for North Korea sanctions enforcement

Russia’s move to effectively disband the panel of experts monitoring longstanding United Nations sanctions against North Korea points to a “grim future” for the sanctions enforcement, three former members of the panel told Reuters.

Russia vetoed the annual renewal of the multinational panel of experts on Thursday, which has spent the last 15 years monitoring UN sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

China, North Korea’s only military ally and its largest trading partner, abstained. Beijing and Moscow have denied breaking sanctions but have blocked new measures at the UN Security Council and advocated lifting some existing sanctions on North Korea, blaming the West and its allies for exacerbating tensions.

Diplomats said it appeared unlikely there would be another vote to try to renew the mandate before it expires on April 30.

The veto highlights a rare diplomatic dividend for Pyongyang and underlines its deepening ties with Moscow, which have included unprecedented shipments of ballistic missiles and ammunition for use in the war in Ukraine as well as possible fuel supplies for North Korea, according to US and South Korean officials and independent analysts.

Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied arms deals, but have vowed to deepen military relations and Russia’s spy chief visited North Korea this week to vow a united front against “attempts to increase pressure from external forces.”

The vote was significant and represents a major turning point in the international sanctions regime against North Korea, said Aaron Arnold, a former member of the panel who now works as a sanctions expert at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

“Russia’s vote, along with its blatant violation of sanctions by buying conventional arms from North Korea, years long history of ignoring their obligations, and at least tacit support from China suggest that the future is grim for the DPRK sanctions regime,” he said, using the initials of North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Russia’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia criticized the experts’ work, saying before the vote that its reports had been reduced to “playing into the hands of Western approaches, reprinting biased information and analysing newspaper headlines and poor quality photos.”

Even the panel’s backers acknowledge that its work was increasingly constrained, but blamed it on Chinese and Russian members blocking or obfuscating unfavourable findings.

“The latest report is very interesting, because although it goes into some useful detail on finance and on overseas workers, China is barely mentioned,” said one former senior member who asked not to be named because of diplomatic sensitivities. “If you’re talking about breaching the sanctions, and not mentioning China, that’s not really a terribly accurate reflection of what is really going on.”

While the panel reports looked like a comprehensive summary, they were more like a small part of a larger puzzle, often with some of the most important pieces left out, the former member said.

The end of the panel could lead to more trilateral cooperation among Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, and more evidence of sanctions violations could be released to the public since the restraining influence Russia and China had over headline-generating reports will be gone with the UN panel of experts, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.—Reuters