Problems in the Middle East

Israel has started pulling some of its ground troops from Gaza. The reason would be partial realisation of its war objectives. There are other reasons as well.  The international community has criticised Zionist aggression like never before. Netanyahu and his western backers are also mindful of the growing calls for commercial boycott of multinationals doing business with Israel and blocking the import of goods produced in Israeli settlements on Palestinian lands.

In killing and maiming thousands of civilians in Gaza, Israel has achieved its cynical objectives of testing its war plans and defence equipment. It can now offer those weapons for export. Aims like crippling Hamas or dismantling the ‘terror infrastructure’ could not be achieved because the international community is grudgingly acknowledging Hamas as a courageous bunch. As for the destroyed tunnels, more can be built in future. The bottom line of the Gaza operation: it’s bad for business.

The mayhem unleashed by Israel on the unarmed people of Gaza pushed the adventures of the Islamic State to the backburner. But reports of battles in both Syria and Iraq over the weekend indicate that in some ways, the stunning advances made by the self-proclaimed jihadis may be creating bigger issues for a number of countries in the region.

The first and foremost concern is about the survival of Iraq and Syria in their present internationally recognised borders drawn in the process of the dismemberment of the great Ottoman Turkish Empire after WWI. The IS is extending its contacts in the region, which could result in cross-border civil wars exacerbating existing sectarian divisions.

Meanwhile, the IS model of state (resembling those from times past) is taking shape in areas under its control. Raqqa, in north-central Syria, is a symbol of IS hard-line social moors. The gallant IS commanders probably do not realise that if minorities are made to convert, leave or pay some special tax in Muslim lands, the much larger Muslim communities in the west could also suffer from discrimination.

This is a globalised world. The entire history of mankind is marked by wars and waves of migration. But the human race has evolved to a point where people belonging to different faiths can not only travel to lands, dominated by other faiths but even become residents and nationals of those countries. Do we want to return to the days when Al-Qaeda advised Muslims to refrain from travelling in aeroplanes, living in tall buildings and residing in the countries of ‘infidels’.

Reports from Syria indicate that the IS has ordered activists in more areas to swear allegiance to it and submit to censorship. Among other steps the activists have been told to recognise the caliphate and stop using the term Daash, the Arabic acronym for the group’s previous name – the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, apparently used by its opponents. While restraining people from working for television channels, the IS has stepped up its own media operation distributed on social media.

Turkey is feeling the heat from the rapid rise and activism of the IS. Some border areas are facing incursions by IS fighters, using Turkish territory to infiltrate into Syria. Terror attacks by IS members have led to crackdown by Turkish forces. After the destruction of shrines in IS-controlled areas in Iraq, Turkish ground forces and the air force are keeping a vigil on the tomb of Suleyman Shah.

The lands that gave the world three leading religions are known for prolonged periods of bloodshed. However, the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the anti-Assad rebellion in Syria and the permanent cauldron that is occupied Palestine, have led to an acceleration of conflicts in these lands. The situation may have been different had Bashar al-Assad followed in the footsteps of the long ruling dictators of Tunisia and Egypt who gave up power in the face of popular rebellions.  Assad chose to fight on, encouraged by the lack of a decisive intervention by those backing the rebellion. Syria has gradually become the new rallying point for jihadis from various parts of the world.

The jihadis, including the resurgent Isis (now IS), have failed to dislodge Assad from power. He continues to be assisted by old allies. The regional supporters of the Syrian rebellion are now confronted in turn by the IS that poses a challenge to all of them as well as the regime in Baghdad.

An intriguing aspect of the latest developments is the role of Israel and the United States. To some, the IS is a surrogate of international agencies, while others see the IS as a threat to the Arab-Israeli peace process.

As the great power of our time, the US suffered, likes others in history, from imperial overstretch in Afghanistan and Iraq. The American voters drove out the neo-con warriors before they could start another war in Iran. President Obama was too keen to withdraw troops from Iraq. He has followed the same approach in Afghanistan. A great power should not light new fires and then leave those places in flames. Imperialism is neither a part-time nor a short-term vocation. Alas, all imperial powers decide their own comings and goings. It is the countries invaded by them that are left in turmoil.

A likely effect of imperialist legacy in recent conflicts is the dismemberment of states like Syria and Iraq. This implies that even if the regimes in Baghdad and Damascus can hold on to the capitals and some areas, a de facto partitioning has already taken shape. In both countries, determined and fearless jihadi groups make it extremely difficult for the central authorities to re-establish their writ. That renders the idea of broad-based governments or power sharing in Iraq and Syria extremely difficult – if not impossible.

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com