Power crisis

Needless to emphasise that the industrial and overall economic development of any country is inconceivable without energy security, which implies the availability of enough energy resources to cater for the current needs of a society and also the existence of a potential reservoir to grapple with future needs without any hic-ups. That explains the rationale for Energy Security being the pivot of all the growth models around the globe. Unfortunately the economic planners in Pakistan and the successive regimes gave very low priority to the development of the energy sector or made any earnest effort to assess the energy needs and initiate appropriate actions to safeguard the future of the country.

Their ill-conceived priorities, unimaginative planning, knack for prestige projects rather than the necessity-driven ventures and above all inefficiency, mismanagement and rampant corruption in the power sector has pushed the country into a power crisis of unprecedented magnitude which has not only sent the industrial development into a nosedive but also added to the enormity of the unemployment problem besides making the lives of the masses miserable. In the 21st century one has a feeling of living in the Stone Age.

Whatever power project were initiated in the hydro, nuclear and thermal power domains were undertaken in complete disregard of the considerations for an appropriate energy-mix required for the country and their future implications. The result is that out of a total installed power generating capacity of 23000 MW including hydel power, thermal power and nuclear energy, the dependable or de-rated production capacity is in the range of 14000-16000 MW due to a variety of reasons including line losses, power theft, corruption and other administrative inadequacies. However, the actual power available in the entire grid system is around 10000 MW, far less than the current demand of 1450 MW due to a huge circular debt and mismanagement.

The demand for energy is increasing by eight percent annually and according to the estimates of IAEA, by 2025 Pakistan will require 49078 MW to meet its energy needs. That indeed is a very worrying situation. Apart from overcoming the power crisis in the short term by eliminating the circular debt and enhancing power generation through revitalisation of the existing installed capacity, we have to more than double the power generating capacity in the next 12 years to be able to conceive a sustainable development process in the country.

That indeed is a colossal challenge requiring a paradigm shift in regards to power generation in the country. The emphasis will have to be shifted to finding a dependable and rational energy mix; of course reducing our dependence on thermal power produced through imported oil and gas and move towards tapping renewable energy resources like hydel, wind and solar power. The country has a potential of producing 57000 MW of electricity from our rivers and their tributaries. It is the cheapest source of energy though the seasonal variations in the water flow also cause fluctuations in the production of electricity.

According to a USAID report, Pakistan has the potential of producing 150,000 megawatts of wind energy, of which only the Sindh corridor can produce 40,000 megawatts. Similarly Pakistan is ideally suited to tap infinite solar energy due to the availability of sun round-the-year. Any future planning therefore must focus on renewable energy resources. That is however easier said than done. The effort will require huge financial resources for making investments in these areas either through internal resource or tempting the foreign investors to make investment in these sectors, which again will depend on a number of predictable and unpredictable variables concerning economic ground realities and security situation in the country. The next five years will actually determine the real direction in this regard.

The government of Nawaz Sharif is therefore faced with a daunting and intractable challenge of tiding over the energy crisis in addition to tackling the scourge of terrorism. These problems are of such a magnitude that they cannot be tackled by the incumbent government alone and it will require the co-operation of other political entities represented in the federal parliament and the provincial legislatures, as it might entail promulgation of new laws and in certain cases amendments in the constitution to create a congenial legal framework to effect desired and required changes as well as radical structural reforms in the management of economy.

Nawaz Sharif has repeatedly said that dealing with the energy crisis will be his top priority and he will deal with the challenges facing the country by bringing all the stakeholders on board.

It is said that nothing is borne without shrieking and blood, which means the creation does not come the easy way. Creating a new Pakistan will require sacrifices by the masses because they are ultimately to provide necessary finances needed for the contemplated development and security strategies. In my view it would be in the fitness of things to take the people into confidence about the state of the economy, sacrifices that they will have to make in expanding the scope and level of internal resources through taxes and other monetary and fiscal measures that invariably will effect them and then firm up strategies in all the domains through a national consensus, so that the measures put in place have broader acceptability and ownership.