Performance or…

On the 27th of December, 2012, Benazir Bhutto’s fifth death anniversary, a major political event took place with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari addressing those who came to pay their respects to his late mother. His focus was not on the government’s achievements but on the continued victimisation of the party by the judiciary.

A political non-event took place a week or so ago with Prime Minister Raja Parvez Ashraf flanked by Kaira, the Minister of Information, unveiling a publication using expensive art paper titled “Reconciliation Reforms Revival 4 years of democratic government (2008-2012)”. The publisher was the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting which means that our tax rupees paid for the cost of the publication. Its non-event nature was exposed when in spite of invitations sent out to all television channels and members of the print media it was neither telecast live nor made the front pages of any major daily.

Kaira’s foreword provided much amusement to not only analysts but also the general public struggling with continuing electricity and gas shedding, collapsing public entities including railways, the national airline, Pakistan Steel and with the only visible improvement during the four years in the PPP government’s performance in the corruption index.

The publication claims that the focus of the Democratic government (and the letter is in capital) was on “constitutional, fiscal, administrative, institutional and social dimensions of democratic governance”. The first page of the first chapter of the report displayed the photograph of Z A Bhutto next to the letter P and the caption was Promise, the second P letter has Benazir Bhutto with the caption Policy and the final P has President Asif Ali Zardari’s photograph with the caption Performance. Even diehard jiyalas would be hard pressed to accept that the party has performed well in its five year rule and the focus on performance certainly will not be an effective election strategy. That was corrected in Bilawal’s speech with the focus on victimisation of the party.

There is no question that the passage of the eighteenth constitutional amendment and consensus on the national finance commission award are landmark achievements. However without the support of the PML (N) as well as other parties, in coalition as well as in the opposition, neither of these achievements would have been possible.

There is no disagreement that Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), the flagship programme of the PPP government, is a well targeted subsidy programme though the money extended to the vulnerable, 1000 rupees per month, is certainly not enough to meet a family’s needs. The expansion of the programme to providing education, healthcare and insurance of crops and life must be supported and one only hopes that the opposition adopts a more mature approach and supports a good programme and takes ownership if and when it comes to power.

Other claims in the Kaira publication present a one-sided picture: he contends that exports crossed 25 billion dollars while ignoring the rising trade deficit, extols the restructuring of 8 state-owned entities but ignores the massive annual bailout packages, boasts foreign exchange reserves reaching their highest level, which can be easily challenged by the fact that the government recently admitted that its foreign exchange reserves were a cause of concern and account for its decision to seek another International Monetary Fund programme. Some claims made in the report are simply inaccurate for example his contention that debt to GDP ratio was maintained in accordance with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, a claim refuted in recent months by sources in the Ministry of Finance which was reported and not officially denied.

Kaira’s publication also referred to private sector as an engine of growth with a focus on stock exchange reforms and amendments in banking acts; however the Punjab industry is in revolt against the government’s decision to suspend its gas supply to enable it to increase supply to the domestic sector with the objective of minimising the impact of gas shedding on the forthcoming elections. Heavy borrowing from the domestic commercial sector has also led to crowding out the private sector and continuing law and order problems account for many industrial units relocating to other countries. Unemployment was combated by using the autonomous entities as employment exchanges which, in turn, led to over employment, high losses and demand for bail out packages which the treasury could not afford.

And most laughable of all claims by Kaira was his contention that the PPP delivered on its promise of ensuring water security and energy infrastructure. Never before has electricity and gas shedding been witnessed on the scale as at present. His other claims can easily be refuted on the grounds that the government was accused of rising corruption, poor governance and last but not least blatant fudging of data to show an economic situation that is simply not credible.

PPP detractors would without doubt also focus on the failure of the PPP to take advantage of the verdict on the Asghar Khan case and go after the Sharif brothers. This lends credence to claims of muk mukaa between the two parties, a view strengthened by the scaling down of attacks by the PML (N) leadership against the President in recent months.

Enter the two co-chairmen of the PPP and one is compelled to accept that the PPP’s election strategy’s focus is not on performance but on victimisation. Would the general public disregard performance and accept the party leadership’s claim that it was unable to perform because of the judiciary getting involved in prices which one can agree is not a subject that the judiciary in the free world focuses on? Or would the votes go the PPP way with the party leadership laying the blame for Benazir Bhutto’s murderers not being convicted on the judiciary? This charge will not stick and many are aware that the investigative branch of government has been particularly lax in investigating and/or providing proof to the courts against their party members as well as coalition partners implicated in massive financial scandals. Recently, it was also reported that the PPP government suppressed a letter written by the United Nations investigation team blaming the PPP for not revealing names of perpetrators, planners, financiers, and abettors of the fatal attack on the PPP slain leader – a letter that is in the Foreign Office.

To conclude, for the discerning educated public the victimisation strategy would not hold water and there are few takers that PPP would win too many urban seats; but with the majority of the PPP voters largely uneducated who vote according to tribal/baradari system and are mostly resident in rural areas one would have to wait and see which way the votes would be cast. In other words, would the non-performance by the government especially in Sindh after the 2010 and 2011 floods be a factor or would the Bhutto name, Bilawal’s four and a half year old middle name, carry the day. One would have to wait for the election results to determine whether our electorate has changed or not.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2012