There are some facts that both news reporters and readers become overly fond of. For example, it is a fact that populations across the Muslim world are growing at an unprecedented rate and Muslim countries are being overrun by their youth.
It is a fact that is often used to explain the societal changes going on in Arab countries and to sound alarm bells warning of coming resource shortages in countries like Pakistan. It is also a fact conspiracy theorists in the western world are quick to quote, talking about armies of Muslim babies who will eventually take over the world from an older, weaker white population.
It is such an important fact that worrying about it has left little room for looking into other demographical changes that are happening in the Muslim world. It is left to the scientists to point these out and, armed with enough statistics to satisfy even the most sceptical minds, they have done so.
Fertility rates in Muslim countries are dropping and have been dropping sharply in many places for quite some time. Countries like Bangladesh, Iran, the UAE and Oman have seen steep declines far above the world average. So much so that there are concerns that current rates may not be enough to replace the current population. This could lead to shrinking populations within the next few decades.
Here in Pakistan, although it looks like we are drowning in a sea of babies, the fertility rate has dropped from 6.5 children per woman in 1980 to 3.3 in 2011. While this is still high compared to most of the world, it is a very significant decrease when viewed on its own.
This means that conspiracy theorists can rest easy; their countries will not be conquered by Muslim baby armies after all. These statistics show that fertility has little to do with religion. The Muslim world is undergoing significant economic and social changes like most other countries and these are what contribute to fewer babies.
One of these changes has been described as the ‘flight from marriage’ phenomenon. Marriage rates are still high in Muslim countries but they are dropping fast, just like the rest of the world. Women are also getting married later because of increased education and contribution to the workforce and divorce rates are also on the rise.
Before conservatives wring their hands in despair at the disappearing morals of Muslim women, it must be pointed out that these are not the only reasons for decrease in the fertility rate. Due to advances in health care and better nutrition, infant mortality rates are also dropping in most countries. Consequently there is less need to have more babies in case some of them die.
Furthermore, improvement in economic conditions means that children do not have to be part of the labour force and parents have less incentive to increase family size.
Demographics are a complicated set of facts and figures that rarely fit reductionist theories, so it always pays to dig a little deeper. Whether the world is collectively shunning marriage or whether advances in science have made family planning a reality for millions who always wanted it, the fact is that the world’s population will eventually stop increasing. This is just as well, considering that we only have a finite amount of resources to support our needs.
Perhaps the coming decades and centuries will not lead to a reality where the world is overflowing with surplus babies but rather, an old and grey population worrying about how to support itself without an adequate number of young people.
The writer is a business studies graduate from southern Punjab. Email: asna.ali90@ gmail.com
Asna Ali, "Overlooked demographics," The News. 2013-02-20.Keywords: