More questions than solutions

Unable to find common ground, delegates from the Syrian government and opposition Friday left Geneva empty-handed after a week characterised by acrimonious discussions, and analysts warned the window for future success was rapidly closing. Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN-Arab League envoy for Syria, said the two sides should meet again on February 10 – but only the opposition has agreed to that date. The Syrian government said it had not yet decided to attend.

Brahimi admitted there was no substantial progress during the first round of negotiations, which he said had started with “immense hope.” “But it is a beginning on which we can build,” he said, but acknowledged his disappointment. “What we saw in Geneva was not a failure of negotiations, but a failure of negotiations to actually begin,” said Syria expert Salman Sheikh, head of the Doha-based Brookings Centre. “After a week of discussion and debates, the two sides cannot agree on what Geneva II is and should be about,” he said.

That lack of agreement has raised doubts over the future of diplomatic efforts to end the three-year-old conflict in which more than 130,000 people are estimated to have died. Even less controversial topics such as humanitarian aid for the besieged central city of Homs and a prisoner swap were eventually derailed, and have led to scepticism over the fate of more polarising political issues such as the formation of a transitional governing body – and even the future of President Bashar al-Assad.

An alleged proposal by Damascus to release 8,000 prisoners was whittled down to 2,000, then to 1,800, before being withdrawn completely because of differences over the names of detainees and the government delegation’s wish to include the release in an overall humanitarian package. “After both delegations failed to reach even an understanding on a prisoner swap, political issues were out of the question,” said a UN official close to the proceedings.

Despite several attempts by Brahimi, the two sides failed to discuss the formation of the interim authority – the core of these talks and a key tenant of the Geneva I agreement reached more than a year ago. But Syrian officials refused to open the subject and repeatedly insisted that the discussions be devoted to combating terrorism. “Until the status of al-Assad is resolved, no other issue can be tackled at these negotiations,” said Syria observer Nadim Shehadi with the London-based Chatham House think tank.

As the negotiations wound down Friday, Damascus reiterated that it would not “give any concessions throughout the process,” with Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi declaring that the Syrian government would not “surrender the rights of the people.” Yet, perhaps the biggest threat to the talks is the ongoing conflict itself, with reports of the United States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar increasing arms supplies to opposition forces even deepening divisions among the negotiators. “You simply cannot expect the two sides to take negotiations seriously when the very countries who called for the talks are not,” Sheikh told dpa.

“I don’t see that changing between now and next month.” Analysts say that the two sides have taken what Brahimi once described as “half-steps” of progress to “several steps backwards.” In the week since the peace talks opened in Switzerland at least 1,900 people have been killed in Syria, a pro-opposition watchdog said Friday. Sheikh of Brookings Centre said: “Syria cannot afford to wait for Geneva III.”