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Merkel returns from vacation to face an in-tray full of worries

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is back at her desk next week after her summer holiday to find an in-tray filled with tough political issues – from refugees and immigration to the Greek crisis and criticism of her government’s removal of its top legal advocate. Berlin (dpa) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel returns to work from vacation next week to face a series of issues that represent major political risks for her in the coming months as well as helping to shape the agenda for an election in two years.

In addition to the on-going refugee drama and a split in her ruling coalition over a possible new immigration law, Merkel will also have to contend with the fallout from her government’s dismissal of the nation’s chief prosecutor over a treason probe of two journalists.

At the same time, the Greece debt crisis could suddenly flare up again in the coming weeks amid signs that Europe could be forced to provide new temporary aid for the cash-strapped nation as bailout talks with Athens drag on. Deeply unpopular in Germany, rescuing Greece from bankruptcy is now likely to lead to moves for overhauling the eurozone. This could place Berlin on a collision course with France and Italy with Paris and Rome seeking to rebalance Merkel’s drive for fiscal discipline with more emphasis on growth and job creation.

But before that Merkel has to try to head off the threat of a major rebellion in the ranks of her conservative Christian Democrat-led bloc over a possible new Greek bailout, which the German parliament is required to vote on. Merkel is set to preside next Wednesday over her first cabinet meeting since returning from her hiking holiday in northern Italy, although officials say she is likely to be back in her office during the early part of next week.

For the moment, Merkel continues to enjoy high opinion poll ratings and is regularly voted Germany’s most popular political leader, helping to underpin support for her political bloc. “She gives people the impression that she will ensure that the current crises will not wreak havoc in their everyday life,” said Manfred Guellner, who heads up the pollsters Forsa. A Forsa poll published in the weekly Stern on Wednesday showed 55 per cent of those surveyed would vote for Merkel in a direct vote for chancellor.

Only 14 per cent said they would back Sigmar Gabriel, the leader of Germany’s other main party, the Social Democrats (SPD), which is the junior member of Merkel’s ruling coalition. In addition to her hardline stance in the Greek crisis, Merkel’s standing in Germany had also been bolstered by the solid performance of the nation’s economy. This is likely to encourage her to run again as chancellor in 2017. The key question is likely to be the timing of the announcement.

While she has been away, the news in Germany has been dominated by a surge in the number of refugees escaping conflict zones with support for accepting more asylum-seekers on the wane. There has also been a steady round of anti-foreigner protests and arson attacks on refugee homes with the buildings often daubed with swastikas. These events raise the risk that voters could start to feel that the government doesn’t have the refugee situation under control.

Linked to the refugee question are the tensions that have been unleashed in her coalition over whether to try to address the gaps in the labour market by revamping the immigration law to ensure the country only took skilled labour. The number of job vacancies in Germany climbed by 17.3 per cent over the last 12 months to 588,677 in July, according to data released last month by the labour office. The rise in job vacancies has also coincided with a steady rise in immigration numbers, raising questions about the qualification of those entering the country.

Merkel’s government has already helped to lower the hurdles for young refugees to gain work. But a push apparently supported by Merkel for a possible makeover of the immigration rules has run into stiff opposition from senior ministers, including Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere. Merkel appears to sense that reforming the immigration law could become an issue at the next election in 2017.

The SPD, which are likely to be Merkel’s main opponents in the election are at present drawing up plans to attract skilled labour from abroad, possibly by launching a point system to assess prospective immigrants’ qualification. Immigration has also emerged as a major focus of a new right-wing party, the Alternative for Germany, which has drawn voters away from Merkel’s political bloc.

Andrew Mccathie, "Merkel returns from vacation to face an in-tray full of worries," Business recorder. 2015-08-08.
Keywords: Political science , Political issues , Greek crisis , Political risks , Immigration law , Debt crisis , Greece bankruptcy , Fiscal discipline , National economy , Immigration numbers , Political block , Germany , Greece , Berlin , SPD