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Gujarat’s right-wing leader poised for premiership bid

Right-wing Indian politician Narendra Modi looks set for a greater role in national politics after winning a third electoral victory to lead the western state of Gujarat Thursday, but not all agree he would be his party’s best bet. The leader of the Hindu right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is widely seen as a key contender for the post of prime minister of India in the 2014 general elections.

Modi, 62, is idolised by large sections of Gujaratis and is admired by India’s business community for his investment-friendly approach, but he is also inextricably linked to some of India’s worst violence between Hindus and Muslims while he was the state’s chief minister in 2002.

“He has given us electricity, roads,” Ahmedabad-based businessman Ritesh Raval said. “There is water supply. He works hard and gives what he promises. He would do a good job as prime minister.” India has come a long way since the 2002 riots, analysts have said, adding that perceptions and aspirations have changed as the economy has grown. “It is another kind of India today and it needs a different kind of leader,” political columnist Tavleen Singh told NDTV news channel. “Modi has shown in Gujarat a model that works,” Singh said, adding that there was no doubt that Modi would want to move to the national stage.

Many in the BJP, which governs Gujarat but sits in opposition in the national parliament, have said his image of an efficient and clean administrator makes him the best choice to represent the party in the 2014 elections. In an open letter to the party leadership in October, BJP member Ram Jethmalani, one of India’s best-known criminal lawyers, said criticism of Modi as a divisive figure was “diabolic propaganda directed to projecting him as an anti-minority bigot,” when he has in fact “worked hard to regain the confidence of the minorities.”

And with corruption and incompetence more typical problems, “I would want Narendra Modi, whose integrity and administrative ability are not in doubt,” as candidate for prime minister, he wrote. Others differ, even within the party. “Modi as a prime ministerial candidate would make it difficult for the BJP to project itself as a moderate centrist party capable of representing all Indians and drawing votes across communities,” said a BJP ideologue who asked for anonymity.

This could cost it the support of regional parties, which has been essential for the two main national parties – the BJP and the Indian National Congress party – to form every government for decades. Parties such as Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) in Bihar might withdraw their current support of the BJP if led by Modi, said Ajay Dandekar, professor at the Central University of Gujarat based in the state’s principle city Ahmedabad.

These parties depend on their Muslim voter base, and cannot afford to be associated with hard-line Modi, who has fought elections with the slogan of Hindu Hriday Samrat, or the king of Hindu hearts. His administration has been accused of standing by or even colluding in the 2002 riots across the state, in which officials say 1,000 died, while rights organisations put the toll at more than 2,000.

Shakila Bano is a Muslim domestic worker in Ahmedabad, Gujarat’s principal city. Her mother and 2-month-old nephew were burned alive during the riots. Bano says she will never forgive Modi. So far the courts have found no evidence of Modi’s involvement in the riots.

But a former minister in his government, Maya Kodnani, was jailed this year for rioting, murder and criminal conspiracy during the riots, before she took office as a minister. The case is under appeal. Modi has tried over the past decade to project himself as a pro-development leader representing all Gujaratis, and held several sadbhavana (communal harmony) rallies in 2012.

“But in spite of his best efforts, Modi has not been able to delink himself from the 2002 riots,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, whose biography of Modi is due to hit the stands in early 2013. Either way, analysts and BJP insiders agree that Modi’s third straight win in Gujarat will strengthen his chances of leading the party into the 2014 elections. Across India, the middle class have a fascination for him, said Dandekar.

Part of it is due to the success of the media- and technology-savvy politician’s impressive publicity machine, Dandekar said, which has played down Gujarat’s less impressive development indicators such as high infant mortality or low literacy rates. Mukhopadhyay said if the BJP chooses Modi to lead it into the 2014 general elections, there will be a huge realignment of political allegiances, “much of it along dangerously communal lines.” BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad refused to be drawn, stressing that the election is more than a year ahead. “We are very proud of his governance, but if you are thinking of the PM candidate – allow the party to decide at the right time,” he said.

Sunrita Sen, "Gujarat’s right-wing leader poised for premiership bid," Business recorder. 2012-12-21.
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