Five years on

Five years after the Pulwama-Balakot incident, five key pieces of information indicate how the BJP government orchestrated the Pulwama attack, conducted the missed strikes, made false claims of striking Pakistan’s F-16, and ended up not only losing its aircraft during Pakistan’s Operation Swift Retort but also shot down its own helicopter in friendly fire, killing all six onboard.

First, the audio leaks by former BJP member Avi Dandiya of an alleged conference call between Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh and an unidentified woman purportedly revealed a plot of an attack on Indian soldiers. While its authenticity remains questionable, the audio, if genuine, suggests that BJP leaders were masterminding an attack that they intended to use as a key component for securing victory in 2019 elections.

“Nothing will happen by martyring one or two soldiers. We did Uri and nothing happened”, says the woman in the leaked conversation. She adds, “If you want we will get the blast done and 5 to 100 soldiers would be killed”. The BJP leader says that “their politics hinges on security of forces”. And that “the nation is very emotional on the issue of soldiers.” This suggests that the attack was meant to generate patriotic sentiment and sympathy, and highlights how the BJP plays with the psychology of the Indian public.

The leaked audio clip has been viewed by millions online. While the Indian media claimed it to be false and the police has booked Avi Dandiya, BJP leaders and the Indian government did not directly address the claims made in the audio. If true, it alleges the Indian government’s role in orchestrating the attack.

Second, an alleged leaked WhatsApp chat of Arnab Goswami of Republic TV, in a TV rating investigation suggests that the Pulwama attack was a ‘planned’ event to galvanise public sentiments ahead of the elections. Goswami’s chat read: “BJP government had a ‘planned’ buildup to gain a massive spike in popularity”.

Another aspect that fuels suspicion is the on-ground presence of Goswami’s channel for live coverage of the Pulwama incident. He alleged, “Sir 20 min ahead on the biggest terrorist attack in Kashmir… only channel with ground presence in Kashmir”. His chats boast that his channel won the coverage rating ‘like crazy’.

Arnab Goswami purportedly knew about the Balakot airstrikes three days prior to the attacks. On February 23, 2019 Goswami wrote “something big will happen. Government is confident of striking in a way that people will be elated”.

Third, the former governor of Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, Satya Pal Malik, in an interview with Karan Thapar on April 15, 2023, revealed that the attack on Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) convoy in Pulwama was a result of ‘incompetence’ and ‘carelessness’ by the Indian system.

When Satya Pal raised concerns about ‘carelessness’ with Prime Minister Modi and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, he was told to remain quiet. This account suggests that PM Modi prioritised using the attack as an electoral strategy over conducting a thorough investigation.

He detailed how the CRPF had requested an aircraft for transportation, but the Indian Home Ministry did not respond. Despite the heavy presence of security checkpoints in IIOJK, an explosive-laden truck remained in the vicinity for over ten days before the attack, indicating a severe lapse in oversight. It appears that the failure to neutralise potential threats to the paramilitary convoy was deliberate.

The leaked conversation, chat records, and insider confessions suggest that the Modi government falsely accused Pakistan of orchestrating the Pulwama attack and may have even coordinated it for electoral gains. These revelations vindicate Pakistan’s stance and undermine India’s false claims.

Fourth, the Indian Air Force’s so-called ‘preemptive strike’ on the alleged Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) camp on February 26, 2019 in Balakot, across the Line of Control (LoC), were highly exaggerated. The claims of striking large number of militants and inflicting heavy damage were contradicted by Pakistan and independent assessments that indicated no damage at the site.

Pakistan immediately responded to India’s airspace violation and aggression. In the early hours of February 27, 2019, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) conducted Operation Swift Retort. PAF aircraft entered Indian airspace and dropped bombs on a football field near Indian military installations, delivering a precise and calculated response.

The operation aimed to execute a hit-and-run manoeuvre and lure the opponent into Pakistan’s airspace. During the aerial engagement, the PAF’s electronic warfare squadron jammed the radar and communications of Indian aircraft operating in Pakistani airspace. The air-to-air combat resulted in the downing and capture of Indian MiG-21 pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman.

India later claimed that Abhinandan had shot down a Pakistani F-16, for which the Indian government awarded him the wartime gallantry medal, Vir Chakra. However, this claim was refuted by both Pakistan and the US Department of Defense (DoD), which verified Pakistan’s F-16 inventory. Indian media also falsely reported that the downed F-16 was flown by the son of a retired air marshal — who later clarified that his son had never flown an aircraft and worked a corporate job instead. This highlights how the Indian media fabricates false claims and sensationalizes stories for ratings.

Fifth, while false claims were repeatedly made by India during the whole Pulwama-Balakot and Operation Swift Retort episode, the diplomatic community also jumped in. Last year, an Indian diplomat Ajay Bisaria wrote a distorted version of the incidents.

Contrary to Ajay’s claims of India’s ‘coercive diplomacy’ that ‘forced’ Pakistan to return the pilot, Pakistan returned the captured pilot as a peace gesture, treating him with dignity and respect in accordance with international law. This reflects maturity on Pakistan’s part, which significantly helped de-escalate tensions between two nuclear-armed rivals.

This leads to the conclusion that the BJP government is the troublemaker in the region, and ensuring stability is not solely Pakistan’s responsibility. India’s inflexible posture and increasingly rigid stance towards Pakistan have hindered all progress in bilateral relations since 2019. This calls for the Indian government to move towards meaningful and constructive dialogue to manage hostilities.