Did you say mid-term?

Welcome to Pakistan, the great laboratory for politico-economic experimentation after major revolutions elsewhere have run their course. The Chinese settled to a combination of party state mothering a capitalist economy. Russia found a path to a revolving door autocracy with a new generation of oligarchs replacing the communist apparatchik who had earlier eliminated the feudal system.

In the Arab world, the Egyptian army struck by wrapping up a year-old popularly elected Islamic regime after orchestrating massive street demonstrations to show that the Egyptians had enough of Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood.

But in the Islamic republic not one but two adventurers have embarked simultaneously on launching mass rallies to overthrow the elected government. As a result, the year-old government with a heavy mandate is pushed to the back foot. Frankly, the charge sheet is not that inspiring nor is the government’s performance worse than its predecessor.

Yet, on the one hand is a religious scholar claiming a divine mission to set things right after summary trial of the present rulers — once his main benefactors. On the other side is a sportsman of international fame who delved first into a charitable project and then realising that the nation badly needed him, launched his own party in 1996.

After trials and tribulations, his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has become the second party in terms of popular vote but could not get the slot of the leader of opposition due to a first past the post system that resulted in the PPP finishing ahead in the National Assembly.

The PTI mounted a campaign about election irregularities probably hoping to reopen some constituencies that hypothetically could have resulted in the party becoming the official opposition in the assembly. Frustrated with the PML-N’s unhelpful attitude, the skipper decided to launch a mass rally to press his point. On the surface, this is not an insurmountable problem except that in case of an upset in Ayaz Sadiq’s constituency, the government would face the embarrassing loss of its parliamentary speaker.

The government is understandably nervous about the about the PTI and PAT rallies converging in Islamabad. The prospect of a sit-in by a large number of protesters next to the seat of government has caused jitters among the residents and business circles of the city as well as raised fears of severe fallout on the twin city of Rawalpindi.

Hundreds of thousands commute to Islamabad everyday and disruption in their lives will have serious consequences. Offices, markets, hospitals, educational institutions and means of transport — and the airport — may all be paralysed by a massive show of force by rallies aimed at overthrowing the government or the system.

The government may be working on a two-pronged strategy. Hoping that TUQ does not enjoy the same level of support as Imran Khan, the administration in Punjab has cordoned off the PAT headquarters. As for Tehreek-e-Insaf, a political force to reckon with, carrot and stick tactics may be used. Letting them stage a rally in the capital and as time and elements wear down the participants, offer a face-saving deal to help Imran declare victory and leave.

That would be a repeat of TUQ’s revolution in January 2014 that was whittled down by extreme cold. Weather conditions in August will be very tough for the protesters. With day temperatures going up to 40 centigrade and oppressive summer nights the effect will be debilitating on the participants of any sit-in. Not to forget the conversion of the Blue Area into a mass lavatory as was seen during Qadri’s march.

A lot has been said about the implications of requisitioning the troops under Article 245 of the constitution. It is a double-edged weapon and there is no shortage of commentators who see the presence of troops near the rally as intimidating that could even lead to a 1977 like situation, with the army stepping in with all its consequences. Another reason for the prime minister to defuse matters amicably with the help of political players.

There is no doubt that the PTI is a vibrant political force. The highest endorsement of that came from Nawaz Sharif himself by suggesting that instead of trying to bring down the PML-N government, Imran should wait for his turn. If Imran keeps a steady course as a credible alternative, he stands a good chance of winning the next election. But, the timing of his call to have mid-term polls is way off the mark.

It simply does not make a forceful argument for mid-term elections when the government is only at the beginning of its second year in power. Logically, it would make greater sense to make this call in the third year of the mandate. But then nobody has claimed that Pakistani politics follows logic.

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com