Death race

“The arms race is a race between nuclear weapons and ourselves.”

– Martin Amis

In a recent meeting of the National Command Authority (NCA), Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership expressed apprehensions over India’s rapidly growing nuclear programme, vowing to maintain “full-spectrum deterrence capability.”

It was also noted in the meeting that India’s growing nuclear capabilities in the form of medium and intercontinental range ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles and ballistic missile defence system can be detrimental to regional strategic stability.

Contrary to many assessments, Pakistan’s nuclear security managers are of the view that India has enough fissile material, both reactor- and weapon-grade plutonium, for more than 2,000 nuclear weapons. Some Pakistani analysts also endorse this view. While there is no independent way of checking the veracity of this apparently unsubstantiated claim, it is certainly beyond doubt that India has one of the world’s fastest growing nuclear weapons stockpiles.

According to a 2014 report published by a US-based military intelligence think tank, India’s all-powerful nuclear establishment is rapidly expanding its ability to produce fissile material to support an unnecessarily larger nuclear arsenal. The report echoed Pakistan’s justified fears that India is pursuing ‘runaway’ expansion of its nuclear arsenal. The Modi government has plans to develop a covert uranium enrichment plant, which would substantially expand India’s nuclear submarine fleet in addition to the proposed development of thermonuclear weapons.

In the absence of any pressure from the international community, India’s offensive nuclear capabilities have become a cause of concern for regional powers like Pakistan and China. India continues to produce plutonium at the Dhruva plutonium production reactor near Mumbai and there are reports that the Indian government plans to build another reactor near Visakhapatnam. According to some published sources, an unsafeguarded reactor is also under construction at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) near Kalpakkam. Pakistan’s policymakers are afraid that these reactors will significantly enhance India’s capacity to produce plutonium in the years to come.

Experts have estimated that India already possesses about 120 nuclear warheads. However, according to the 2015 report by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, India has more than 540 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium, which is enough to produce 135 to 180 weapons.

Over the past few years, India’s nuclear weapon delivery capabilities have largely been shaped by its China-centric threat perception. India’s Mirage 2000H and Jaguar IS/IB aircrafts give it the ability to conduct nuclear strike operations into Pakistan and China. These strategic fighter-bombers, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, still constitute the backbone of India’s operational strike force but the country has also made lot of progress in developing land-based missile systems.

New Delhi has exhibited interest in strategic missile defence since the early 1980s. In 1983, the Indian Ministry of Defence – in partnership with the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) – started work on the ‘Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme’ for the development of the Theatre Missile Defence (TMD). The programme included offensive missiles like the nuclear-capable Prithvi and Agni, and Akash, a surface-to-air missile with the potential to provide India with theatre missile defence capabilities.

As of now, India’s nuclear establishment has deployed four different types of short- medium- and long-range operational ballistic missiles. The Prithvi-I, with a strike range of 150km with a payload of 1,000kg, was inducted into arsenal in 1994 and is focused on targeting Pakistan. However, according to reliable sources, the Indian government now plans to replace Prithvi missiles with the Prahaar missile, which has more accuracy and is more capable of carrying heavy loads.

Prithvi-II, also a single-stage liquid-fuelled missile, has a range of 250km with a payload of 500kg, is a fully operational land-based ballistic missiles. Prithvi-II was first test-fired in 1996 and has improved navigation due to an inertial navigation system. Prithvi-III, codenamed Dhanush, is a two-stage surface-to-surface missile and can also be used to attack a naval port or an aircraft carrier. Due to their small size, Prithvi missiles cannot be seen in satellite images, making it really difficult to know their exact locations.

The Agni missile family has a number of medium- and long-range missiles. Agni-I, with a range of 700-1250km and Agni-II, with a range of 2,000km, can deliver missiles to targets in Pakistan and south-eastern parts of China. Agni-III, intermediate-range missile with a range of 3,000km, was first tested in 2006 but became operational in 2011. Both Agni-II and Agni-III are solid-fuelled missiles but there are certain reliability and technical issues with all three Agni missiles. It is argued that Agni-III is capable of striking Shanghai but this would require it to be launched from the north-eastern corner of India.

In early 2014, the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) conducted tests of solid-fuel Agni-IV, which has a range of 3,500km and can carry payload of 1-tonne to 3,000km. It can also be fired from a road mobile launcher. By July 2014, Agni-V was also introduced into India’s armed forces structure. Agni-V, a solid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missile, has a range of over 5,000km and can carry a payload of 1.5 tons. The extra range of Agni-5 bases has enabled the Indian armed forces to establish its bases in other parts of central and southern India, further away from its border with China.

India also received a lot of foreign help to enhance its offensive nuclear capabilities as part of diplomatic initiatives like Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) launched in 2005 and Defence Trade and Technological Initiative (DTI) in 2012, giving rise to further challenges for strategic stability in the region. It is ironic that the US continues to be supportive of India’s emergence as a dominant nuclear player in the region in pursuit of its regional security interests while remaining a consistent advocate of complete nuclear disarmament at the global level.

India’s ‘blue water’ ambitions and Pakistani defence planners’ willingness to respond by developing sea-based capabilities have further increased the risks that the next military conflict between the two countries would spiral into a full-scale nuclear war.

According to famous experts, Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris, India is working on two different naval nuclear weapon systems: a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a ship-launched ballistic missile. Such unbridled nuclear ambitions will certainly take both countries on the path to a death race, albeit at the cost of peace and stability in the region.

Email: rizwanasghar5@unm.edu