Counting Fata

As the number of the internally displaced persons (IDPs) from North Waziristan registered upon reaching Bannu rose to nearly a million on July 15, the question that came first to one’s mind concerned the actual population of this troubled tribal region.

The delay of 16 years in holding a census in Pakistan is one reason for the government’s inability to obtain accurate population figures and come up with credible estimates. There are also question marks regarding the reliability of the 1998 census, particularly in remote and poorly governed places like North Waziristan and the rest of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata).

One must ask if we really know Pakistan’s true population even though we are aware it would be at best an estimate in absence of a proper census – 160, 180 or 200 million depending on the population growth rates or are we wide off the mark? It is now absolutely necessary to complete the census that had been started despite political problems so that Pakistan is in possession of reliable population data.

In view of the speed with which the registration process in Bannu and Peshawar was proceeding, it wasn’t surprising that the number of the registered IDPs kept growing steadily until it reached 992,649. A total of 90,750 families were registered and all this while the verification process through Nadra was also in progress. The number of verified families turned out to be roughly half of the total number of IDPs who were registered. Those who couldn’t be verified didn’t possess the national computerised identity cards or possessed double SIMs cards needed to receive the cash assistance announced by the government. Thousands of cases of duplication were detected during verification.

Apart from genuine cases and technical glitches, there were also many instances of dishonesty as the displaced families tried to exploit the situation through multiple registration to become entitled for more assistance than their due. This isn’t something unusual considering the decline in our values. However, those trying to manipulate the registration process ought to be forgiven after sustaining both physical and financial losses due to dislocation. No amount of assistance in cash and kind would be able to compensate the people who were uprooted for no fault of theirs.

The number of registered IDPs would have gone up had the registration process not stopped on July 15. In fact, there was a rush of tribesmen who weren’t displaced to get themselves registered at Saidgi, the first checkpoint before entering Frontier Region Bannu from North Waziristan, before it was late. Under arrangements agreed between the tribal jirgas of some of the tehsils of North Waziristan and the army and the political administration, the tribes people from Razmak, Dossali, Garyoom, Shawa, Spinwam, Dattakhel, Shawal and Lowara Mandi were allowed to stay in their villages after giving their word that they wouldn’t permit militants, particularly foreigners, to hide in their areas.

One can imagine how many more people would have left North Waziristan and reached Bannu if the tribal people belonging to these areas too had been ordered by the army to leave. Primarily, residents of Mir Ali, Miranshah and Boya have become homeless and are now IDPs away from home. Many families from the remaining tehsils too have got themselves registered as IDPs without getting displaced. In fact, in certain cases, families from North Waziristan have split – with some members migrating to Afghanistan and others coming down to the settled districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and beyond.

Though the registration process has come to a halt, the number of registered IDPs could increase as many displaced North Waziristanis who had initially crossed over to Afghanistan are now re-entering Pakistan and are being registered at Alizai in Kurram Agency. Officials said 21,000 such Pakistanis had been registered and more could be on the way. The government, which was embarrassed when Pakistani nationals from North Waziristan started migrating to an insecure and war-ravaged country like Afghanistan, has been highlighting the return home of these Pakistanis as corroboration of its claim that they preferred staying in their own country. This is also presented as evidence that these Pakistanis left for Afghanistan temporarily as it was feasible to do so at the time due to the imposition of curfew in North Waziristan soon after the launch of the military operation on June 15 that made it difficult to travel all the way from places close to the Afghan border to reach Mir Ali onwards to Bannu.

The government has also been disputing the figures of Pakistani refugees from North Waziristan who have reached the neighbouring Khost and Paktika provinces in Afghanistan as it believes a much small number migrated there and that too for reasons listed above.

A heartening aspect of the return of the Pakistanis from Afghanistan via Kurram Agency was the warm welcome that they received at Alizai, a Shia town sited in the midst of Sunni villages. The returning Pakistanis were all Sunnis while those welcoming them were Shias. It goes to show that common Sunnis and Shias have nothing against each other, but those with vested interests exploit the situation and try to put them on the path of sectarian confrontation.

The Afghan government has given different, and at times unbelievable, figures of the number of Pakistanis it is hosting in the aftermath of the North Waziristan military operation. Its relief operations are disorganised and unlike Pakistan it has appealed to international organisations for help after realising that it doesn’t have the resources needed to cater to the needs of the Pakistani refugees.

Many tribal elders and common IDPs from North Waziristan in Bannu were initially under the impression that the Afghan government was a lot more generous than Pakistan in assisting the displaced persons, but most such assumptions proved untrue. In fact, it was widely believed that the Afghan government was giving $5,000 per family compared to the assistance package, both in cash and kind, of roughly $500 being provided by the Pakistan government. Maulana Fazlur Rahman too gave a statement that reinforced this impression even though he was seeking to get the Pakistan government to pay greater attention to the needs of the IDPs.

The 1998 census showed that Fata’s population was 3.1 million, which in most instances didn’t include women as tribesmen were reluctant to provide this kind of information to the census officials. Estimated figures of Fata population now range from seven million (if you listen to some officials) to 10 million (as many tribal politicians and intellectuals claim). North Waziristan’s population was put at 361,246 in 1998, but it too was on the lower side. Later, its population was assumed to be half a million. With an area of 4,707 square kilometres, North Waziristan’s population in recent years was estimated at 840,000.

However, these are all estimates and, therefore, not really credible. In fact, the average family size of the IDPs from North Waziristan turned out to be 13 to 14, which is much higher than the rest of Pakistan. Unless we have a proper census, we won’t know how many of us are living in this country and what needs to be done to plan better for a prosperous Pakistan.

The writer is resident editor of The News in Peshawar.

Email: rahimyusufzai@yahoo.com