Continuing uncertainties

Politicians attribute the outgoing regime’s completion of its term to the longest-ever period of ‘consensus’ politics in Pakistan’s history. Just one measure of what that consensus delivered is, that in the last five years, public debt more than doubled over its level accumulated in the previous 60 years.

On March 23, in a TV interview, Shaikh Rashid said the completion of the regime’s term owes itself to Nawaz Sharif, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, and Chief of the Army Staff. It is for the people to decide how fair Shaikh Rashid was in passing this judgement.

Whether the profile of governance in last five years bolstered people’s faith in democracy will be reflected by their participation in the coming elections and the ability of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to ensure that a truly responsible lot enters the next parliament.

Disclosures about the integrity and capacity of the members of the last parliament conclusively prove that the last ECP failed to achieve the crucial objective of elevating only the honest and competent to the parliament, and the nation paid a heavy price for this failure. The present ECP is conscious of this failure and is striving to avoid a repeat thereof – a commitment that made it the target of the outgoing regime. Even in its last days the outgoing regime did everything to dilute the effect of ECP efforts aimed at ensuring free and fair elections.

The tragedy of our politicians has been that they never realised that democracy can become the nation’s culture only if people see democratic regimes delivering in terms of a stronger and rationally balanced economy, and progressively fairer distribution of wealth. Politicians’ failure to agree on a caretaker PM proved that both the coalition and the opposition parties were not as keen on appointing a non-partisan caretaker PM as they were on appointing someone who could assure their success in the coming elections.

Politicians (in the ruling coalition and the opposition) didn’t realise that their misdeed hurt democracy – a conduct suggesting that the term “short-sighted” is an optimistic view about their vision; they can hardly see that the future of democracy depends on their conduct. Intoxication caused by the belief in their “supremacy” made the parliamentarians commit acts that suggested that they had acquired a pious status. The truth just about their claimed educational qualifications exposed how justified was their claim to “supremacy”.

The refusal of the parliament to suitably empower the ECP by passing the ECP Legislative Bill was another proof of the fact that the parliamentarians despise fair elections because, courtesy their track record, they don’t stand a chance of re-election in 2013.

Not surprisingly, in his last days in office, the actions of the outgoing PM manifested his fears about public perception of his government otherwise he wouldn’t have gone on a spree of posting his cronies in key state offices to prevent the ECP from achieving its aims.

The adverse ECP reaction to these transfers and postings proved that. Indications are that the ECP will ask the caretaker PM to remove the newly-appointed functionaries in various key offices of the state. Will the ECP succeed in this effort is anybody’s guess.

The ECP may seek replacement of bureaucrats from the provincial Chief Secretary level down to the district level, the oddest of them being replacement of the Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan – a change that was never deemed necessary for ensuring fair elections.

Rumour has it that the ECP is also discussing the possibility of replacing provincial governors of Sindh and Punjab (that it considers ‘politicised’) because their exit is necessary for ensuring that holders of this office do not influence the outcome of the electoral process.

This is imperative because the directives of the ECP must be implemented in letter and spirit, but won’t be possible unless the caretaker regime makes absolutely sure that the bureaucracy not only complies with this demand, but does so, on a timely basis. Although, as per Article 218 of the Constitution and Supreme Court directives, ECP is empowered to take all steps (including issuing directives for changes in the administration) to hold free, fair and transparent elections, it may not be enough, given the ongoing defiance of ECP directives.

Because ECP can’t ensure free, fair and transparent elections unless, down to the lowest level, bureaucracy stays impartial in performing its role in the electoral process, it will ask the caretaker regime to ensure that its desired administrative changes are made, and quickly.

ECP is therefore determined to seek changes in the administration irrespective of whether or not its powers are confirmed by a Presidential Ordinance because it has mustered crucially important support of the Supreme Court in this context. The failure of the PM and the leader of the opposition and then the parliamentary committee to nominate a caretaker PM afforded the ECP some clout (though limited by the choices earlier made by the parliament) in appointing the caretaker PM.

The fact that even the parties represented in the parliament weren’t given a chance (by the PML-N) to recommend a caretaker PM left the ECP with a limited choice in nominating the caretaker PM. This negative will have implications for the freedom the ECP needs to ensure free and fair elections.

On March 24, despite a split vote, the ECP finally appointed a caretaker PM. Within minutes of ECP’s selection of the caretaker PM, hinting at his political affiliations, the media labelled the caretaker PM as the ‘favourite’ of President Asif Ali Zardari. Let us hope that the ECP made the right choice (despite the limits imposed thereon) because it is reposing a great deal of faith in the non-partiality of the caretaker regime. What begins now is a new struggle; convincing the caretaker PM to, not just withstand political pressures, but repelling them.

In the coming days and weeks, it will become clear whether we are indeed heading for fair elections. The initial responses of the caretaker PM to the questions posed by the media reporters did not suggest that he has a fair idea of the chaos he will be confronting as the caretaker PM. What also remains to be seen is the reaction of those members of the last parliament, who will be disqualified for contesting the 2013 elections; the clout (and it includes a lot) they have acquired in the last five years is hefty, and can destabilise the electoral system. Unless the caretaker MP and the cabinet he forms comply strictly with the demands of non-partisanship and transparency, fair elections can’t be guaranteed.