The timing of the Ufa summit was very interesting as the west’s control over the decaying international system seems to be slipping and the global south starts exerting itself to find its rightful place in the international community.
Many in the west are trying to rubbish this summit as a collective selfie of the aspiring global south leaders who have mutual distrust and serious interstate problems to resolve. While this may hold some weight, let’s look at the economic and demographic potential the southern colossus holds in its kitty. The geopolitical and geostrategic significance of this new southern colossus covers much of the Eurasian Heartland, important sea routes and choke points and non-Eurasian strategically located states like Brazil and South Africa.
The economic and demographic potential of this emerging block is enormous. Conservative estimates suggest that it could have a collective GDP of 20 trillion dollars, and foreign exchange reserves of almost four trillion. Demographically it holds half of the world’s population – and market.
Within the strategic power play, China and Russian federation have been its main driving force. There are lot of commonalities in this new block, the main thing being that it comprises the developing world (wary of the west’s hegemonic policies) and the member states which have enough demographic werewithal and technology to go on their own.
China happens to be the largest economy and a demographic giant in the emerging southern colossus. Its new place in international relations is guided by the policy of Zou Chu Qu. China promulgated the Zuo Chu Qu strategy (‘to go out’) in 2001 and offered a win-win strategy for international cooperation. From the second opening of the African continent to the shores of Brazil and from the Cuban farmlands to the CPEC, one can see the strategic reach and influence of this grand policy.
The Zou Chu Qu vision will be transformed into a grand network of strategic routes and financial investments that would bind Eurasia and Africa in a new economic zone. Some of the constituents of this strategy are worth sharing with the readers. Taking help from Wikipedia, One Belt, One Road (Pinyin) or OBOR focusing on connectivity and cooperation amongst Asian and European countries is a development strategy and framework that consists of two main components, the land-based ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ (SREB) and oceangoing ‘Maritime Silk Road’ (MSR).
The strategy underlines China’s push to take a bigger role in global affairs, and its need to export China’s production capacity in areas of overproduction such as steel manufacturing. It was unveiled by Chinese leader Xi Jinping in September and October 2013 in announcements revealing the SREB and MSR, respectively.
The Silk Road Economic Belt includes countries situated on the original Silk Road through Central Asia, West Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. The initiative calls for the integration of the region into a cohesive economic area through building infrastructure, increasing cultural exchanges, and broadening trade. The Maritime Silk Road, also known as the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Route Economic Belt’ is a complementary initiative aimed at investing and fostering collaboration in Southeast Asia, Oceania, and North Africa, through several contiguous bodies of water – the South China Sea, the South Pacific Ocean, and the wider Indian Ocean area.
This region of Africa (in particular Kenya) will form part of the MSR after improvement of local ports and construction of a modern standard-gauge rail link between Nairobi and Mombasa.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor are officially classified as “closely related to the Belt and Road Initiative”. In coverage by the media, this distinction is disregarded and the networks are counted as components of the initiative.
Financially these mega projects will be sponsored and funded by two major initiatives, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank founded by China in 2014 with the participation of 56 other countries and the Silk Road Fund, a $40 billion development fund, which will be distinguished from the banks created for the initiative. As a fund its role will be to invest in businesses rather than lend money for projects.
Whereas the west has projected China’s influence in the emerging southern colossus as its quest for hegemony, China’s benign policy of live and let live and a win-win strategy of mutual cooperation tell a totally different story.
The developing world, especially emerging economies, has to decide once and for all: are they ready to live in a chaotic world under the west’s decaying hegemony or look for a world order where they are respected for a participative agenda and wellbeing of the people of their nations?
The writer is a Lahore-based defence analyst. Email:waqarkauravi@gmail.com
Waqar K. Kauravi, "Chinese vision," The News. 2015-07-11.Keywords: Social sciences , Social issues , Chinese vision , Ufa summit , Social development , Economy-China , Foreign investment , International trade , Silk road , Economic Corridor , Economic Cooperation , Development projects , China , Pakistan