China aims to press Abe into talks on islands

As right-wing supporters push Japan’s new leader to get tough with China, analysts expect Beijing to step up its pressure on Japan to discuss the Senkaku islands, potentially escalating a dispute over the islets in the East China Sea. China is mounting a two-pronged campaign of diplomatic pressure and deliberate incursions into Japan’s 12-mile territorial limit around the islands, which are known as the Diaoyu in China and the Tiaoyutai in Taiwan.

It aims to disturb Japan’s “actual control” of the islands, potentially paving the way for it to claim parity with Japan in any international dispute settlement. “There is no such thing as Japan’s ‘actual control,’ and China’s ships are patrolling and enforcing the law in the area around the Diaoyu islands,” said Liu Jiangyong, an international relations specialist at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

“So the two sides should face reality and talk and negotiate,” Liu told dpa. “I don’t think China has any barriers on that, the key problem is whether Japan agrees to talk with China on the territorial dispute,” Liu said. China claims it was forced to act after the previous Japanese government purchased three of the disputed islets from a private owner in September.

The ruling Communist Party allowed large anti-Japanese protests in several cities in September, and state television has given blanket coverage to the dispute over the islands and broader Japanese politics since then. It wants new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to make conciliatory gestures and avoid visiting Tokyo’s Yasukuni war shrine, which honours several convicted war criminals among the country’s 2 million war dead and is seen as a symbol of Japan’s militarist past.

“If the Japanese prime minister visits the Yasukuni Shrine, it will definitely cause a new round of anti-Japanese demonstrations,” said Jia Qingguo, vice dean of the School of International Studies at Beijing University. “On the Diaoyu islands, if they drive out Chinese patrol ships with tough measures, it may also spur anti-Japanese activities,” Jia told dpa. In the first week of this year, China sent more ships and a patrol plane to the islands. Japan summoned the Chinese ambassador to Tokyo on Tuesday to protest the presence of four Chinese patrol vessels near the islands.

Abe’s government is reportedly considering an increase in defence spending and tougher defence policies. “China is consistently and firmly against Japan’s infringements in waters and air space off China’s Diaoyu islands and is maintaining high vigilance on Japan upgrading its action,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said when asked about the reports on Wednesday.

Hong said China’s patrols of the disputed area were “normal” law enforcement activities. But experts say Beijing’s policy changed in September. China and Japan have held several rounds of talks over the islets and their resource-rich maritime border since 2004 with little sign of progress. “In the past, China reached a political ‘unspoken consensus’ with Japan, which was that the problem [of the islands] is very sensitive and we can’t solve it now, so let’s put it aside so as not to harm our relationship,” Liu said.

“But this situation is broken and I think it will be hard to recover the old situation under Abe’s government,” he said. Beijing’s ambassador to Tokyo was the only Chinese official to congratulate Abe on becoming Japanese leader, according to state media, an apparent diplomatic snub since Premier Wen Jiabao usually sends such messages to foreign counterparts. China has accused the United States of interference in the dispute over the islands through its military and diplomatic activities in the region.

On Wednesday, Hong repeated China’s opposition of any US mediation. “China always stands for solving territorial disputes through bilateral talks and negotiations,” he said. Liu said he expected Abe to soften the relatively tough stance he presented in his election campaign, but strengthen ties with Washington. “In the first half of this year, his main aim will be keeping stability,” Liu said. “The purpose is to help Japan’s economy recover by improving relations with China.”

Abe could take a harder line if his Liberal Democratic Party wins a majority in parliamentary elections scheduled for July, Liu said. After whipping up anti-Japanese nationalism, Chinese leaders also need to maintain provocative patrolling of the islands, Jia said. “They have to continue even if they don’t want to,” he said. “If not, they can’t explain it domestically.”