An evolving enemy

Three Chechens, one Uzbek, one Kyrgyzstani and one Dagestani. These are the nationalities of six of the 10 terrorists that attacked the Bacha Khan Airport in Peshawar on Saturday (the other four were Pakistani). Five of them managed to escape to the Pawakai village afterwards, and were killed by security forces on Sunday. Such a large number of foreigners in a terrorist attack is a clear indication of how the TTP is moving closer towards Al-Qaeda and conversely, distancing itself from the Afghan Taliban to whom they apparently swear allegiance. But first, to the attack itself.

It was a three pronged affair, with the terrorists first using a car bomb, followed by rocket fire and then a fire fight. Obviously, as is often the case in such incidents, the terrorists had inside Intel, and were headed towards military installations at the airport, which is a joint civilian/PAF facility. Once they were engaged and repulsed, they had a plan – to retreat towards the Pawakai village. Last week’s attack bears a striking resemblance to two other major terrorist attacks, the attack on the Mehran naval base in Karachi in May 2011 and the one on Kamra airbase in August this year. Both these attacks were complex operations, and had a large number of foreign fighters.

These foreign fighters were also part of the audacious Bannu jailbreak, in which the terrorists managed to free more than 350 of their comrades. However, their main focus was Adnan Rasheed, a top Al-Qaeda operative, who is supposed to have been the mastermind on the attempt on former president Gen Musharraf’s life. What could be the reasons for this increasing synergy between Al-Qaeda and the TTP? It all has to do with the Afghan Taliban. Time and again, Mullah Omar has ordered the TTP to refrain from attacking the Pakistani state, and instead focus on the real jihad in Afghanistan. Apart from some of the pro-government Taliban commanders such as Mullah Nazir and Maulvi Muhammad Faqir, the TTP has not responded to these orders.

At the same time, the rift between the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda is old and well known. Al-Qaeda has an expansionist global jihad mindset, not subscribed to by the Afghan Taliban. This rift is now expanding as the possibility of the Afghan Taliban being accepted as a political force in Afghanistan increases. The choice is simple, would the Afghan Taliban choose to be coupled with Al-Qaeda as leaders of global terrorism or as bona fide stakeholders in the future of Afghanistan? Al-Qaeda needs a partner beyond 2014, and it has found a willing one in the TTP. The two share an expansionist global jihad agenda. Al-Qaeda is also okay with the TTP’s modus operandi, which includes targeting civilians. This was a major problem between Al-Qaeda and the Afghans.

The possible outcome of the increasing synergy between Al-Qaeda and the TTP is frightening to say the least. Al-Qaeda’s planning and operational abilities, coupled with the manpower of the TTP, make it a force to be reckoned with. And it doesn’t end here. The TTP is an umbrella for a large number of terrorist outfits in Pakistan, each with their own agenda. This includes many who are involved in sectarian terrorism across the country. The Afghan Taliban has no such aims. Indeed, there have been few sectarian attacks in Afghanistan, all linked to Al-Qaeda, which is vehemently sectarian.

Locally, when Mullah Nazir, the pro-government Taliban leader ousted Al-Qaeda backed Uzbek militants from his area, they moved to Kurram agency and slaughtered many from the opposing sect. 2012 has been a terrible year in Pakistan with regard to sectarian violence, and is stark evidence of the growing closeness between the TTP and Al-Qaeda. All this while, as the enemy evolves, Pakistan continues to operate without a comprehensive ‘taking it to the enemy’ counterterrorism policy. Our stance remains reactive and defensive.

The writer is the chief operating officer of a private FM network. Twitter @aasimzkhan.