Afghanistan: the myth of the ethnic divide

For unknown reasons, many analysts perpetually paint Afghanistan as a fragile space – a china shop of sorts. Just a little military or political aggravation in Afghanistan is enough for them to predict a very possible division of the state. It is further unfortunate that producers and buyers of this nightmare ‘situation’ are found in the two countries where Afghanistan is most frequently debated – Pakistan and the United States.

Surprisingly, within Afghanistan hardly any analyst is of the view that any such probability – of a division – exists. In Pakistan and the west, though, this is a common and earnest debate. Such is the case with the present controversy over the Afghan presidential elections. The western media has been looking into the possible division of the state along ethnic lines, while the Pakistani media has also been following their lead.

The reason for that is evident: Pakistani analysts also look at Afghanistan through a specific lens. There are other reasons as well, including our policymakers following years-old policy guidelines, and refraining from an independent individual approach based on personal observation and analysis. The fact is that as far as the ethnic and linguistic divide in Afghanistan is concerned, there is very little or almost no such threat, especially if we compare it with the other states in the region.

Now through the diplomatic intervention of US Secretary of State John Kerry, both presidential candidates are agreed on the method of verification of polled votes in the second phase of the elections. Even had they not agreed and this controversy had resulted in a political standstill, by no means would it have taken the shape of a linguistic or ethnic divide. Some elements would have indeed tried to fan the flames of controversy, leading it towards an ethnic division of Afghanistan. But for all practical purposes that is impossible due to certain political realities.

The western and Pakistani media are presenting the latest situation as a clash of various ethnicities. They seem to think that since Ashraf Ghani is Pakhtun and Abdullah Abdullah is Panjsheri these two represent the classic divide between Pakhtuns and non-Pakhtuns in Afghanistan. The fact is that although Abdullah Abdullah belongs to Panjsher his father was a Pakhtun and he himself speaks Pashto very fluently. In his panel the first vice president is Engineer Ahmad Khan, Pakhtun by ethnicity and a former affiliate of engineer Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. This Pakhtun also has the same reservations over election results as Abdullah Abdullah.

In the first round of elections Zalmai Rassoul was considered to be Hamid Karzai’s nominee, but in this second phase he is with Abdullah Abdullah and protesting the rigging. Gul Agha Sherzai, presidential candidate in the first phase of the elections and from Kandahar – Pakhtun stronghold – will fully support Abdullah Abdullah in case of a popular agitation against Ghani’s victory. Likewise, Ustad Mohaqiq ethnically a Hazara is in the panel of Abdullah Abdullah as vice president. Thus all ethnicities including Turkmen, Uzbek and a number of Pakhtun leaders are supporting Abdullah Abdullah.

The opposing camp is also as ethnically diverse. The established leader of Tajiks and Panjsheris, Ahmad Zia Masood – Ahmad Shah Masood’s brother – is candidate for first vice president in Ghani’s panel. Abdul Rasheed Dostam, the most influential leader of the Uzbeks, is candidate for vice president. Qutbuddin Hilal, who represented Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hizb-e-Islami in the first phase of the elections, is now in favour of Ashraf Ghani. He is also supported by a number of Hazara leaders.

In this scenario – where a Pakhtun candidate (Ghani) is being supported by a Tajik (Ahmad Zia Masood) and an Uzbek (Abdul Rasheed Dostam) while Abdullah Abdullah is being supported by Panjsheris, Pakhtun engineer Ahmad Khan, another Pakhtun Mirwais Yasini (deputy speaker of the lower house), another Pakhtun Gul Agha Sherzai, and yet another Pakhtun Ustad Sayyaf – there seem to be no apparent reasons for this to end in an ethnic divide.

In Pakistan analysts and commentators also confuse the actual position of Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani by looking at them as leaders of political parties – the way it is done in Pakistan. The political culture of Pakistan cannot be applied to Afghanistan. Here in Pakistan political parties are dominated by central personalities. Nawaz Sharif’s opinion prevails over others in the PML-N and the wishes of Zardari are respected in the PPP. Some random thought by Imran Khan becomes party policy for the PTI.

But this is not the way it is in Afghanistan. There are no strong and representative political parties that can aggregate opinions, nor any central established figures who can dictate policies. Ashraf and Abdullah both yield their power from alliances that have different leaders belonging to different ethnicities. If Ashraf goes the ethnic way there is no chance for him to enjoy support from Ahmad Zia Masood or Rasheed Dostam. Likewise if Abdullah tilts towards the Tajiks, he will lose the active support of Ahmad Khan, Gul Agha Sherzai, and Mirwais Yasini and others.

Our analysts in fact ignore the reality that the Afghans are very divided over leadership and manifestoes but they have no differences over the issue of territorial integrity and Afghan nationalism. Perhaps the Afghans are the most sensitive nation when it comes to respecting the flag and the state. (Poetry and music in Afghanistan have largely nationalistic themes).

Besides, the geographic setting of different ethnicities in Afghanistan is also a guarantee for its territorial integrity. Herat is situated in the southern belt of Afghanistan and is at the border with the Iran – but has a Tajik majority. On the other hand, on the far northern side, right at the border with Tajikistan is situated Kunduz, which is a Pakhtun majority area. The largest political party of the Pakhtuns, the Hizb-e-Islami, and its leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar come from this area. The province of Daykundi is situated in south-east Afghanistan, right in the middle of Pakhtun majority areas, yet the province is inhibited by Dari-speaking Afghans.

So geographically Afghanistan’s different ethnicities are not living in separate blocks or units, rather they are largely mixed and spread in different locations. The capital Kabul is truly metropolitan in nature and is flanked on three sides by Pakhtun areas and on one side by Tajik dominated area. Taking all these facts one can only be surprised over the baseless and illogical theories expounded by ‘experts’ over the imminent division of Afghanistan.

The writer works for Geo TV.  Email: saleem.safi@janggroup.com.pk