A year of misrule

AS the PML-N set-up marks one year in power today, I review its outcomes via a detailed framework that I have used for several past set-ups. It says the quality of an administration’s outcomes depends on the quality of its strategies, which, in turn, depends on the quality of its team.

The outcomes occur in five domains (economic, political, social, security, and external) and functions (legislation, policy, projects, services, and institutional reform). Just by looking at the team, one can predict early how the governing set-up will do in five years. Looking at its weak team last year, I had said that the PML-N will do poorly. A year has validated this view. I focus on the federal set-up.

Politically, the year has been our annus horribilis since 1947 for a civilian set-up. Coming to power via rigged polls with the help of the establishment, the current set-up has unleashed an assault on key institutions, causing more damage in just one year than others did in a full term. This includes dubious legislative tweaks like the 26th and Peca amendments, disruption of social media and abuses against opposition groups like the PTI, PTM, and BYC. The aim seemingly is to deliver the real power wielders a docile set-up and society based on a misplaced view that this will deliver progress. The poor outcomes belie the view.

Economically, progress means economic stability, durable growth, equity, and sustainability. So far, we have only regained economic stability after the 2022 crisis, with low inflation and higher dollar reserves. But past regimes, too, gave us similar stability. Regaining economic stability after a crisis is not difficult. Under IMF-led reforms, it can achieve be achieved via administrative fiat in a few months. The State Bank chief ups interest rates and devalues the rupee. The finance guru cuts development outlays, ups import tariffs, and begs and borrows from Gulf countries and China. All this shrinks the twin deficits to contain the crisis — however, it also cuts growth and enhances the misery of the poor. Reforms have largely stalled under the current set-up.

Durable growth comes from deep reforms in sick state units, the energy sector, subsidies, tax and tariff realms, and the bureaucracy, as well as developing a creative vision for a pro-poor economy to increase investment, productivity, sectoral growth and exports. Thus, higher-level progress goals require different tasks and skillsets than those linked to economic stability. If a set-up achieves the latter, it doesn’t mean it can also achieve the former. Like past administrations, the PML-N is failing to achieve durable growth. Reforms have largely stalled and its vision is limited to distributing patronage-driven services such as different cards and laptops, which will only increase the fiscal deficit and not ignite equitable or durable growth. As Khurram Husain noted astutely on these pages, it may have already achieved peak stability and things may go downhill now given the lack of reforms.

The same is true externally. Ties have improved a bit with China, the US and the Gulf states, but haven’t gone beyond that. So, while loans have been rolled over, we have yet to see the inflow of the billions the set-up was hoping for — which would have allowed it to defer serious reforms by loosening the current account binding constraint. Security tensions persist with India and Afghanistan, as both refuse to play ball.

Overall, too, the security status remains fragile, and groups like the BLA and TTP have launched several attacks. Parachinar is the latest flashpoint. Despite threats, attacks and visits, the Afghan Taliban have so far not stopped the TTP from operating from its soil. As with the economic and external situation, the PML-N and its patrons remain clueless on how to improve things. Finally, there have been no major initiatives in the social sector.

So, the status is practically the same in all domains — plateaus with no chances of major gains soon, given the lack of team capacity. The size of the cabinet has doubled but not its capacities, as new appointees are seen by many to be inept, political choices. Neither the PML-N nor the establishment seem to want deep economic change, as it may unfurl major political and social changes in society that they can’t control, leading to their political demise. So, their aim is to crush societal dissent and feverishly look for funds from big states that will allow them to postpone reforms as long as possible and maintain their political fiat. But this strategy may not work for much longer. So, if our rulers don’t wake up soon, we may be headed towards economic and security chaos.

Email: murtazaniaz@yahoo.com