A changed man?

Millions of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s supporters woke up on election day to what legendary cricket commentator (late) Omer Qureshi would have described as “…it is a bright sunny day here and Pakistan has elected to bat”. In the end, however, it was the lion that roared across the country’s heartland and delivered success to Mian Nawaz Sharif, leader of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz – a success that deserves to be fully celebrated in all its manifestations.

His long journey of nearly 5,000 days through prisons and palaces – from that depressing evening on October 12, 1999 to his dizzy hour of triumph on May 11, 2013 – is truly remarkable by any standard. But twice before he has been on that same victory stand, so who else but he would know the importance of moving fast to convert this moment into something meaningful. If that is not done, before the victor realises, managing success can become a far more excruciating exercise than handling failure.

It is being suggested that Nawaz is a changed man who will not make the same mistakes again by trying to turn Pakistan into a caliphate, getting the Supreme Court attacked, persecuting and harassing journalists who write scathing editorials about his financial dealings and, importantly, locking horns with the military. Doubts, though, still persist. Both Zardari and Nawaz are birds of the same political flock; they relish power and want to amass more wealth. If one couldn’t change after one stint in jail and three in power, how can the other who was pampered in palaces for years?

Changed man or not, the task at hand for Nawaz Sharif is huge. The public sector institutions are nearly beyond redemption if one considers that the Pakistan Railways, to name one such institution, last made a profit in 1974. If only the railways – a cheap mode of transport for poor – are restored, Nawaz needn’t built more motorways and airports during the next five years.

It is good that he has been given an early briefing on the security situation by Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani which, it is hoped, will have narrowed the gap between their publically-stated positions on ownership of the war on terror. The phlegmatic stance of Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan on this issue could allow the insurgents to spawn now and strike later with greater force. The only permanent solution for the rebellious cadres is to renounce violence, lay down arms and abide by the constitution of Pakistan, but that for now is wishful thinking.

Nawaz Sharif’s test of sincerity and political maturity in his unprecedented third term should not take long in coming as election for the office of the president and appointments of a new COAS, chief justice and various other functionaries are just around the corner. Surely, there is the Asghar Khan case verdict to worry about, and the possibility of a break down of the ‘entente cordial’ between the PML-N and the PPP of not going after each other in corruption cases. The nation will be watching keenly if Nawaz indeed is a changed man.

By conceding public mandate to the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Nawaz Sharif may have killed two birds with one stone. He has tasked his rival with the daunting task of bringing some peace to that restive province – something Imran Khan had been promising during his election campaign. On the other hand, this gesture also shows Nawaz’s magnanimity in taking everyone along in the process of power sharing. From Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s choice of chief minister and the Obama administration’s recent declaration about no change in drone warfare strategy it seems like Khan is already heading towards the pit prepared for him by the PML-N for the next election.

The news from Afghanistan is no better as the US and its Nato allies dither on post-2014 force retention plans. The US administration is internally divided on the subject, while France and Canada have opted out from what is being called a ‘second mission’ in Afghanistan. The June conference to settle these differences has been cancelled without announcing a fresh date for the event.

If the US eventually decides against stationing its own share of the 8,000-strong contingent in Afghanistan, the whole regional dynamics will change. One can anticipate a meltdown of the Afghan army, a civil war and a strong possibility of another influx of refugees into Pakistan in such a situation.

Nawaz Sharif’s intention to improve relations with India to the mutual benefit of both countries is laudable, but there are some serious problems there. The weak UPA government, which backed of from the Sharm el-Sheikh accord that barely touched India’s role in Balochistan, can hardly be expected – at the fag end of its tenure – to lock step with Nawaz for a new direction in the relationship. Manmohan Singh’s personal reputation is in tatters, with increasing calls for his resignation.

India has very recently threatened Pakistan with a massive nuclear attack. This was a completely unwarranted move, especially if the Manmohan Singh government wishes to improve relations with Pakistan. Some Chinese think tanks have taken note of this threatening posture and feel that it is not in the interest of regional peace. It is hoped countries like Turkey and China will view the development in its proper perspective when India’s entry into the 45-member Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) is up for deliberations next time.

It seems the Indian objective is to obtain MFN status with Pakistan in this small window of opportunity. Nawaz Sharif is best placed to safeguard the interests of our indigenous industry but he must link enhancement of trade with tangible progress on such outstanding issues as water diversion and Kashmir.

Rahul Gandhi’s withdrawal of his candidature for the prime ministerial position after the next election says much about the Congress’ chances of winning. If Narendra Modi becomes the next prime minister of India, the bellicosity from across the border can only be expected to increase. It would, therefore, be prudent to keep the Gah-Jati Umra bonhomie separate from compelling imperatives of statecraft.

It is believed that Nawaz Sharif wants to review the decision of handing over Gwadar port to China. Former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz was well aware that a port operator has better prospects to succeed if it has its own fleet of ships or can effectively influence shipping lines for port calls, yet the management of Gwadar port was awarded to Port of Singapore Authority, which operates many terminals but has no ships.

Those in the ports and shipping circles are aware that some years ago, China awarded control of Shanghai port to Maersk where it only had 32 percent stakes. This bold move paid off as Shanghai today is one of the top ports in the world. The Chinese have whatever it takes for Gwadar port to take off and no further mistakes should be made in realisation of its development plans.

Also, the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and any Chinese interest in raising energy-related infrastructure on this western edge of our country should be strongly promoted in the face of all pressures. Anyone opposed to our enhancement of energy security in the competitive environment of the 21st century is not our well-wisher.

Asked by a foreign reporter after his election victory if he remembered his past mistakes, Nawaz responded that he didn’t as he had so many things on his mind. For mistake-prone Nawaz, some introspection on past mistakes is in order – both for himself and for Pakistan.

The writer is a retired vice admiral.Email: tajkhattak@ymail.com